{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e5edec1-8602-450b-8f85-f4d5117d11a7", "symbol": "APRP", "name": "PGIM S&P 500 BUFFER 12 ETF - APRIL", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.089, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.551, "architecture_energy": 56.547, "architecture_maturity": 22.931, "architecture_confidence": 78.202, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.88, "rotation_up": 63.83, "upward_expansion": 84.75, "deceleration": 57.74, "rotation_down": 20.05, "downward_expansion": 9.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.263853, 33.131665, 32.794492, 32.460268 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 33.2591, "trend_reference": 31.865187, "distance_from_trend": 0.043744, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.531713, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.165689, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.935289, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.112903, "excess_performance": -0.047256, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043744, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03474, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.165689, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012394, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009353, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007155, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.112903, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.117495, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7885, "relative_activity": 0.437803, "balance": 1.117495, "dry_up": 0.861863, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014515, "annualized_volatility": 0.133722, "from_high_reference": -0.003299, "from_low_reference": 0.152181 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.865187, "fair_value_reference": 28.531713, "structural_low": 29.79, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.007998, "positive_rate": 0.9, "directional_follow_through": 0.9, "median_excess_return": -0.006429, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.032182, "worst_return": -0.006312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.044495, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.032586, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.049513, "worst_return": 0.033389, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.07937, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.032942, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.07937, "worst_return": 0.07937, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"direction": 79.478764, "energy": 77.309176, "activity_lines": [ 32.81442, 32.550973, 32.335914, 31.906927 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 33.1907, "volume": 12620, "typical_volume": 26495.75, "trend": 31.415797, "fair_value": 28.379326, "relative_strength": -2.938553, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.903872, "energy": 76.850158, "activity_lines": [ 32.964667, 32.695185, 32.448686, 32.028643 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 33.1595, "volume": 26412, "typical_volume": 22832.6, "trend": 31.52566, "fair_value": 28.417567, "relative_strength": -1.610598, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.221547, "energy": 75.440096, "activity_lines": [ 33.0718, 32.817109, 32.542414, 32.14114 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 33.2642, "volume": 16802, "typical_volume": 20240.65, "trend": 31.638633, "fair_value": 28.456033, "relative_strength": -1.687993, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.595366, "energy": 70.958332, "activity_lines": [ 33.171867, 32.943487, 32.63339, 32.253304 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 33.34, "volume": 10991, "typical_volume": 19082.5, "trend": 31.752537, "fair_value": 28.494489, "relative_strength": -1.497853, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.358671, "energy": 65.318258, "activity_lines": [ 33.249307, 33.069931, 32.721551, 32.36307 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 33.2591, "volume": 7885, "typical_volume": 18010.4, "trend": 31.865187, "fair_value": 28.531713, "relative_strength": -0.935289, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.551055, "energy": 56.546799, "activity_lines": [ 33.263853, 33.131665, 32.794492, 32.460268 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }