{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e619218-b793-4189-9916-d4072c8bb97a", "symbol": "6204", "name": "Taiwan Alpha Electronic Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 67.256, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.723, "architecture_energy": 30.77, "architecture_maturity": 43.219, "architecture_confidence": 63.206, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.37, "rotation_up": 14.2, "upward_expansion": 16.17, "deceleration": 67.83, "rotation_down": 62.11, "downward_expansion": 41.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 76.246667, 85.067273, 89.019524, 84.746882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 82.699997, "trend_reference": 80.386667, "distance_from_trend": 0.028778, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 87.855375, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.05868, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.095594, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.25303, "excess_performance": -0.188342, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028778, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065901, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.05868, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046361, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.220956, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028628, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.25303, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.112648, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1684112, "relative_activity": 0.650951, "balance": 2.112648, "dry_up": 0.462215, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.202028, "annualized_volatility": 0.738983, "from_high_reference": -0.363846, "from_low_reference": 0.49009 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 80.386667, "fair_value_reference": 87.855375, "structural_low": 58.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.034151, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.007627, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.169849, "worst_return": -0.131241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.076144, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.003102, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.326676, "worst_return": 0.042296, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.047531, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.123028, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.148097, "worst_return": -0.053035, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.183482, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059932, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033435, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0558, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045649, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049521, "active": 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"up", "direction": 8.593817, "energy": 19.162119, "activity_lines": [ 87.433333, 97.136363, 91.241905, 85.673978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.800003, "volume": 849106, "typical_volume": 2466796.2, "trend": 80.483334, "fair_value": 87.470114, "relative_strength": -34.882657, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.753021, "energy": 34.641557, "activity_lines": [ 77.226667, 90.916364, 89.585714, 84.692903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 78.900002, "volume": 1241257, "typical_volume": 2515203.65, "trend": 80.28, "fair_value": 87.662938, "relative_strength": -23.469718, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.307224, "energy": 34.377475, "activity_lines": [ 74.666668, 87.518182, 89.161905, 84.590753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 82.699997, "volume": 1684112, "typical_volume": 2587156.0, "trend": 80.386667, "fair_value": 87.855375, "relative_strength": -22.095594, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.723228, "energy": 30.769781, "activity_lines": [ 76.246667, 85.067273, 89.019524, 84.746882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }