{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e65f578-45b5-4633-9eac-0a4a949cfe46", "symbol": "P1Z", "name": "PATRIZIA SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 58.547, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -11.623, "architecture_energy": 26.237, "architecture_maturity": 35.931, "architecture_confidence": 40.94, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.38, "rotation_up": 19.49, "upward_expansion": 19.58, "deceleration": 67.32, "rotation_down": 63.15, "downward_expansion": 42.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.388, 7.569144, 7.480699, 7.451699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.37, "trend_reference": 7.552312, "distance_from_trend": -0.02414, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.478783, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.014545, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.825363, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.090123, "excess_performance": -0.26437, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02414, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00826, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.014545, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057695, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.208254, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018098, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.090123, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 600, "relative_activity": 5.203816, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 2.528187, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046025, "annualized_volatility": 0.290228, "from_high_reference": -0.168172, "from_low_reference": 0.106607 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.552312, "fair_value_reference": 7.478783, "structural_low": 6.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.007752, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.048568, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.158322, "worst_return": -0.109031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.032531, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.096407, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.046061, "worst_return": -0.139892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.041, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.204746, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.062121, "worst_return": -0.192731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.081717, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094793, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002418, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066514, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.122249, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": 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64.7, "trend": 7.662645, "fair_value": 7.525047, "relative_strength": -15.845608, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.550151, "energy": 67.637222, "activity_lines": [ 7.822194, 7.611415, 7.395873, 7.486294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.33, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 64.7, "trend": 7.666978, "fair_value": 7.518256, "relative_strength": -10.985147, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.585745, "energy": 77.164809, "activity_lines": [ 8.027333, 7.771124, 7.487496, 7.52935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.45, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 64.7, "trend": 7.639645, "fair_value": 7.500886, "relative_strength": -18.244544, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.864029, "energy": 44.98779, "activity_lines": [ 7.862667, 7.748588, 7.494403, 7.515351 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.18, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 57.0, "trend": 7.610978, "fair_value": 7.492014, "relative_strength": -21.666655, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.321849, "energy": 16.427222, "activity_lines": [ 7.634667, 7.669503, 7.479073, 7.485696 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.3, "volume": 566, "typical_volume": 85.3, "trend": 7.585978, "fair_value": 7.484909, "relative_strength": -19.765317, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.088308, "energy": 13.35325, "activity_lines": [ 7.484, 7.613331, 7.476838, 7.465633 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.37, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 115.3, "trend": 7.552312, "fair_value": 7.478783, "relative_strength": -20.825363, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.622981, "energy": 26.237234, "activity_lines": [ 7.388, 7.569144, 7.480699, 7.451699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }