{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e669723-2513-4d1e-b1d0-a76ca1860366", "symbol": "IWB", "name": "Italian Wine Brands S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.761, "architecture_energy": 39.125, "architecture_maturity": 53.343, "architecture_confidence": 92.386, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.72, "rotation_up": 16.89, "upward_expansion": 5.73, "deceleration": 44.83, "rotation_down": 54.59, "downward_expansion": 79.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.557334, 18.634546, 18.759662, 18.879579 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.860001, "trend_reference": 19.18204, "distance_from_trend": -0.016789, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.472918, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.031475, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.050815, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.060943, "excess_performance": -0.231834, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016789, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035142, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.031475, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027239, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200508, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03287, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060943, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.07002, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74568, "relative_activity": 2.075536, "balance": 1.07002, "dry_up": 1.533933, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031242, "annualized_volatility": 0.135149, "from_high_reference": -0.187202, "from_low_reference": 0.059551 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.18204, "fair_value_reference": 19.472918, "structural_low": 17.799999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.023697, "positive_rate": 0.354839, "directional_follow_through": 0.645161, "median_excess_return": -0.024886, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.193925, "worst_return": -0.176923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.087454, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.107493, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.360092, "worst_return": -0.257647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.054645, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.118119, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.151456, "worst_return": -0.381965, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.235002, "energy": 26.517549, "activity_lines": [ 18.816, 18.835272, 18.894124, 19.101593 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.620001, "volume": 21268, "typical_volume": 33009.2, "trend": 19.417849, "fair_value": 19.478401, "relative_strength": -19.775269, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.26942, "energy": 29.845195, "activity_lines": [ 18.741334, 18.785455, 18.862387, 19.046551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.18, "volume": 60985, "typical_volume": 33495.55, "trend": 19.338134, "fair_value": 19.470427, "relative_strength": -21.043042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.743517, "energy": 47.468313, "activity_lines": [ 18.542667, 18.670909, 18.795251, 18.96669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.379999, "volume": 63618, "typical_volume": 35299.75, "trend": 19.252087, "fair_value": 19.470134, "relative_strength": -20.222513, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.319029, "energy": 50.731125, "activity_lines": [ 18.456, 18.604363, 18.752979, 18.904875 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.860001, "volume": 74568, "typical_volume": 35927.1, "trend": 19.18204, "fair_value": 19.472918, "relative_strength": -20.050815, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.761417, "energy": 39.12531, "activity_lines": [ 18.557334, 18.634546, 18.759662, 18.879579 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }