{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e6ad3b9-b0ad-4005-bf5e-1d325c785307", "symbol": "DUG", "name": "ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.14, "architecture_energy": 70.214, "architecture_maturity": 97.917, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.52, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 57.54, "rotation_down": 57.95, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 319.8, 326.375928, 326.688554, 382.046178 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 318.0, "trend_reference": 497.11648, "distance_from_trend": -0.360311, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 470.050839, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.323477, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -53.675583, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.643036, "excess_performance": -0.588369, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.360311, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.274201, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.323477, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06102, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.536756, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086416, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.643036, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.150376, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 525, "relative_activity": 1.078915, "balance": 0.150376, "dry_up": 0.509145, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029066, "annualized_volatility": 1.433527, "from_high_reference": -0.643036, "from_low_reference": 0.078262 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 497.11648, "fair_value_reference": 470.050839, 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"trend": 535.30621, "fair_value": 468.438306, "relative_strength": -55.096432, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.090168, "energy": 74.62766, "activity_lines": [ 328.8, 329.181308, 331.491448, 408.853762 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 318.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 467.85, "trend": 516.211345, "fair_value": 469.244573, "relative_strength": -54.575712, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.791734, "energy": 68.969071, "activity_lines": [ 323.4, 327.889982, 327.726082, 394.834007 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 318.0, "volume": 525, "typical_volume": 486.6, "trend": 497.11648, "fair_value": 470.050839, "relative_strength": -53.675583, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.139551, "energy": 70.214239, "activity_lines": [ 319.8, 326.375928, 326.688554, 382.046178 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }