{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e6bf19e-577f-4335-962f-274c64518cfc", "symbol": "SIL3S", "name": "SG ETC DAILY SHORT -3X SILVER FUTURE", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.336, "architecture_energy": 29.157, "architecture_maturity": 26.79, "architecture_confidence": 45.832, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.39, "rotation_up": 45.63, "upward_expansion": 63.03, "deceleration": 65.86, "rotation_down": 17.83, "downward_expansion": 17.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.057993, 0.058244, 0.051427, 0.0493 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.0455, "trend_reference": 0.048883, "distance_from_trend": -0.069212, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.155955, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.992609, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -91.383347, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.22089, "excess_performance": -0.391782, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069212, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.727887, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.992609, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003231, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.913833, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060668, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.22089, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.873397, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1831500, "relative_activity": 3.263306, "balance": 1.873397, "dry_up": 1.211869, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.220287, "annualized_volatility": 1.511077, "from_high_reference": -0.980367, "from_low_reference": 0.895833 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.048883, "fair_value_reference": 6.155955, "structural_low": 0.024, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.297285, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.366868, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.297285, "worst_return": -0.297285, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.618255, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.733817, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.618255, "worst_return": -0.618255, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.571836, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.613087, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.571836, "worst_return": -0.571836, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 574687.8, "trend": 0.056223, "fair_value": 6.377803, "relative_strength": -89.637249, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.108667, "energy": 62.975522, "activity_lines": [ 0.06488, 0.058442, 0.050495, 0.049471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0603, "volume": 178000, "typical_volume": 551059.25, "trend": 0.052233, "fair_value": 6.281356, "relative_strength": -89.381595, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.910415, "energy": 60.140999, "activity_lines": [ 0.06382, 0.059929, 0.051709, 0.049734 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0455, "volume": 1831500, "typical_volume": 561240.6, "trend": 0.048883, "fair_value": 6.155955, "relative_strength": -91.383347, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.335606, "energy": 29.15689, "activity_lines": [ 0.057993, 0.058244, 0.051427, 0.0493 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }