{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e6cf28e-6194-4a57-9267-219d0b9f82e4", "symbol": "000637", "name": "Maoming Petro-Chemical Shihua Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.738, "architecture_energy": 48.331, "architecture_maturity": 62.95, "architecture_confidence": 90.365, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 25.73, "upward_expansion": 7.75, "deceleration": 60.62, "rotation_down": 50.84, "downward_expansion": 81.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.638, 3.651273, 3.920143, 4.119204 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.79, "trend_reference": 4.333, "distance_from_trend": -0.125317, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.823013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.008635, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.333375, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.210417, "excess_performance": -0.217816, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125317, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062933, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.008635, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.270916, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.163334, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041844, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.210417, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.559358, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51238140, "relative_activity": 1.171219, "balance": 0.559358, "dry_up": 1.301598, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089304, "annualized_volatility": 0.378886, "from_high_reference": -0.363025, "from_low_reference": 0.151976 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.333, "fair_value_reference": 3.823013, "structural_low": 3.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.05845, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.214286, "median_excess_return": 0.059724, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.15528, "worst_return": -0.116625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.123418, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.131152, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.384365, "worst_return": 0.074094, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.167925, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.031504, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.314815, "worst_return": 0.022152, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"activity_lines": [ 3.638, 3.651273, 3.920143, 4.119204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }