{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e6d0075-dd38-4936-b935-187bdd0257da", "symbol": "2841", "name": "iFreeETF NASDAQ100 (JPY HEDGED)", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 92.094, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.5, "architecture_energy": 28.061, "architecture_maturity": 68.498, "architecture_confidence": 80.159, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.55, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 58.44, "deceleration": 88.25, "rotation_down": 29.37, "downward_expansion": 19.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 1669.066667, 1678.6, 1672.428571, 1627.409079 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1720.0, "trend_reference": 1572.605412, "distance_from_trend": 0.093726, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5842.325463, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.705597, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.172476, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.202149, "excess_performance": -0.00711, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093726, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045927, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.705597, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040124, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061725, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055642, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.202149, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.185645, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 292693, "relative_activity": 1.162729, "balance": 2.185645, "dry_up": 0.720258, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034034, "annualized_volatility": 0.175917, "from_high_reference": -0.023837, "from_low_reference": 0.302044 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1572.605412, "fair_value_reference": 5842.325463, "structural_low": 1321.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.016594, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.004574, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.06983, "worst_return": -0.010112, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.064315, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.000398, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.128175, "worst_return": -0.033708, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.156899, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.119497, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.174535, "worst_return": 0.115678, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 6060.049978, "relative_strength": -13.162442, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.904473, "energy": 48.543626, "activity_lines": [ 1702.733333, 1709.054545, 1650.088968, 1601.294349 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1649.0, "volume": 90364, "typical_volume": 247054.85, "trend": 1555.985628, "fair_value": 6005.188581, "relative_strength": -9.435376, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.17666, "energy": 34.47361, "activity_lines": [ 1684.066667, 1698.690909, 1656.070912, 1607.680506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1630.0, "volume": 83330, "typical_volume": 236249.55, "trend": 1560.236007, "fair_value": 5950.014353, "relative_strength": -10.644977, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.616418, "energy": 25.505022, "activity_lines": [ 1662.4, 1685.054545, 1659.319048, 1612.455627 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1637.0, "volume": 258853, "typical_volume": 240600.5, "trend": 1564.985486, "fair_value": 5895.235231, "relative_strength": -9.406601, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.24731, "energy": 24.865429, "activity_lines": [ 1650.733333, 1673.709091, 1662.419048, 1617.408142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1720.0, "volume": 292693, "typical_volume": 251729.35, "trend": 1572.605412, "fair_value": 5842.325463, "relative_strength": -6.172476, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.499888, "energy": 28.06084, "activity_lines": [ 1669.066667, 1678.6, 1672.428571, 1627.409079 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }