{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e6f1e4f-4085-449b-9173-a35a5e9633ae", "symbol": "TCHI", "name": "ISHARES MSCI CHINA MULTISECTOR TECH ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -6.723, "architecture_energy": 18.892, "architecture_maturity": 23.382, "architecture_confidence": 59.166, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.56, "rotation_up": 17.34, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 68.74, "rotation_down": 55.28, "downward_expansion": 39.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.787373, 24.195123, 24.324894, 24.023033 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.5779, "trend_reference": 23.845089, "distance_from_trend": 0.030732, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.165592, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.282397, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.957568, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.027484, "excess_performance": -0.15997, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030732, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011906, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.282397, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056787, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099576, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0156, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.027484, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.777384, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57175, "relative_activity": 0.782565, "balance": 0.777384, "dry_up": 0.944488, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054978, "annualized_volatility": 0.245691, "from_high_reference": -0.085426, "from_low_reference": 0.187965 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.845089, "fair_value_reference": 19.165592, "structural_low": 20.994119, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.037231, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.050179, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.113951, "worst_return": -0.094536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.02443, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.079383, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.223581, "worst_return": -0.044706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.10443, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.203083, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.212714, "worst_return": -0.134423, 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24.51526, 24.758245, 24.363809, 24.064187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.1585, "volume": 51486, "typical_volume": 78994.85, "trend": 23.878924, "fair_value": 19.075884, "relative_strength": -10.56395, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.035896, "energy": 16.423096, "activity_lines": [ 23.937007, 24.456429, 24.307276, 24.016711 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.2439, "volume": 88880, "typical_volume": 79290.25, "trend": 23.844887, "fair_value": 19.113138, "relative_strength": -10.607895, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.200206, "energy": 24.272551, "activity_lines": [ 23.56632, 24.192253, 24.254189, 23.975742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.5779, "volume": 57175, "typical_volume": 73061.05, "trend": 23.845089, "fair_value": 19.165592, "relative_strength": -9.957568, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.723406, "energy": 18.892384, "activity_lines": [ 23.787373, 24.195123, 24.324894, 24.023033 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }