{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e6fe97d-8272-4166-8aac-d0d56c3dac2a", "symbol": "601107", "name": "Sichuan Expressway Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.948, "architecture_energy": 23.351, "architecture_maturity": 75.737, "architecture_confidence": 70.739, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.7, "rotation_up": 36.37, "upward_expansion": 20.6, "deceleration": 44.15, "rotation_down": 24.8, "downward_expansion": 56.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.629333, 5.495236, 5.586283, 5.714096 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.53, "trend_reference": 5.878083, "distance_from_trend": -0.059217, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.110222, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.082145, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.096379, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.135938, "excess_performance": -0.092734, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059217, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034414, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.082145, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100191, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050964, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05087, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.135938, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.362919, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66378498, "relative_activity": 1.179979, "balance": 1.362919, "dry_up": 1.214947, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066038, "annualized_volatility": 0.299887, "from_high_reference": -0.168421, "from_low_reference": 0.101594 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.878083, "fair_value_reference": 5.110222, "structural_low": 5.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.026596, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": 0.027926, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.15275, "worst_return": -0.055276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0625, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.044594, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.34757, "worst_return": -0.037879, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.110427, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.032936, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.181256, "worst_return": -0.04798, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034735, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03963, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041145, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006932, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003165, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042763, "active": false }, { "regime": 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5.209533, 5.420591, 5.632855, 5.786311 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.5, "volume": 59478157, "typical_volume": 57279738.8, "trend": 5.929083, "fair_value": 5.073873, "relative_strength": -1.74567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.848722, "energy": 73.571081, "activity_lines": [ 5.284, 5.404582, 5.602605, 5.757424 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.52, "volume": 71522181, "typical_volume": 57321105.65, "trend": 5.906083, "fair_value": 5.08494, "relative_strength": -2.376868, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.717629, "energy": 43.356715, "activity_lines": [ 5.374667, 5.398782, 5.578069, 5.731031 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.01, "volume": 76003640, "typical_volume": 57002330.2, "trend": 5.896417, "fair_value": 5.099207, "relative_strength": 5.812465, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.669596, "energy": 15.618572, "activity_lines": [ 5.614667, 5.491391, 5.6042, 5.737735 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.53, "volume": 66378498, "typical_volume": 56253983.8, "trend": 5.878083, "fair_value": 5.110222, "relative_strength": -5.096379, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.948493, "energy": 23.350726, "activity_lines": [ 5.629333, 5.495236, 5.586283, 5.714096 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }