{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e71b989-b0b8-49e0-9505-8ca0417d8804", "symbol": "6588", "name": "East Tender Optoelectronics Corporation", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.099, "architecture_energy": 19.521, "architecture_maturity": 17.91, "architecture_confidence": 48.497, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.64, "rotation_up": 32.62, "upward_expansion": 21.84, "deceleration": 48.75, "rotation_down": 30.56, "downward_expansion": 35.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 88.44, 87.12909, 98.590952, 103.11043 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 93.099998, "trend_reference": 101.325, "distance_from_trend": -0.081174, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.685629, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.99419, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.42361, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.33, "excess_performance": -0.111372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081174, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.196234, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.99419, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.135195, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.004236, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.728739, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.33, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.483745, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6896155, "relative_activity": 0.55039, "balance": 2.483745, "dry_up": 1.175189, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.175246, "annualized_volatility": 1.045604, "from_high_reference": -0.440841, "from_low_reference": 2.506591 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 101.325, "fair_value_reference": 46.685629, "structural_low": 66.599998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.005617, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.167183, "worst_return": -0.182569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.079452, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.106937, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.173913, "worst_return": -0.105053, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.087287, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.172834, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.080745, "worst_return": -0.255319, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.174231, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073003, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.202171, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.056314, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028674, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 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-35.877618, "energy": 52.799277, "activity_lines": [ 89.333333, 99.427272, 111.741428, 107.098494 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 71.599998, "volume": 2395395, "typical_volume": 11753729.2, "trend": 96.08, "fair_value": 45.217039, "relative_strength": -15.343843, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.992611, "energy": 63.544932, "activity_lines": [ 81.986666, 92.587272, 107.668571, 105.57258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 81.5, "volume": 3233308, "typical_volume": 11723185.45, "trend": 97.23, "fair_value": 45.546526, "relative_strength": -6.386661, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.374463, "energy": 58.841601, "activity_lines": [ 79.966666, 88.845454, 104.740476, 104.631935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 89.099998, "volume": 35075687, "typical_volume": 13364426.65, "trend": 98.541666, "fair_value": 45.920885, "relative_strength": 2.795029, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.22211, "energy": 55.459271, "activity_lines": [ 82.213332, 87.34909, 102.529523, 104.107419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 89.800003, "volume": 13693399, "typical_volume": 13431401.7, "trend": 99.811666, "fair_value": 46.283385, "relative_strength": 0.252854, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.356605, "energy": 37.679731, "activity_lines": [ 84.8, 86.732727, 100.35619, 103.543441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 93.099998, "volume": 6896155, "typical_volume": 12529585.8, "trend": 101.325, "fair_value": 46.685629, "relative_strength": -0.42361, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.098683, "energy": 19.520977, "activity_lines": [ 88.44, 87.12909, 98.590952, 103.11043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }