{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e74f451-362e-40c2-b9d3-4c4247b03130", "symbol": "F83", "name": "COSCO SHIPPING International (Singapore) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 53.282, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 13.818, "architecture_energy": 20.395, "architecture_maturity": 61.018, "architecture_confidence": 55.018, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.25, "rotation_up": 54.87, "upward_expansion": 26.79, "deceleration": 40.73, "rotation_down": 18.07, "downward_expansion": 29.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.116533, 0.114982, 0.115533, 0.115784 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.119, "trend_reference": 0.116176, "distance_from_trend": 0.024309, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.128742, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.075672, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.317725, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.033399, "excess_performance": -0.121436, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024309, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012266, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.075672, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008502, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153177, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06554, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.033399, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.275972, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15212900, "relative_activity": 2.20469, "balance": 2.275972, "dry_up": 1.784759, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027149, "annualized_volatility": 0.183872, "from_high_reference": -0.05611, "from_low_reference": 0.072072 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.116176, "fair_value_reference": 0.128742, "structural_low": 0.111, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.006863, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.525, "median_excess_return": -0.030283, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.352456, "worst_return": -0.155557, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.037079, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.089874, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.143674, "worst_return": -0.167702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.041637, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.175943, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.165347, "worst_return": -0.211175, "sufficient": true }, { 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72.527987, "activity_lines": [ 0.1126, 0.113982, 0.115404, 0.115864 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.113, "volume": 2930200, "typical_volume": 6576175.0, "trend": 0.116355, "fair_value": 0.129349, "relative_strength": -18.423623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.069166, "energy": 65.068526, "activity_lines": [ 0.1126, 0.113545, 0.115121, 0.115632 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.113, "volume": 3671600, "typical_volume": 5491565.0, "trend": 0.116184, "fair_value": 0.1291, "relative_strength": -19.009704, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.292901, "energy": 50.504558, "activity_lines": [ 0.112733, 0.113255, 0.114881, 0.115416 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.119, "volume": 27446400, "typical_volume": 6491790.0, "trend": 0.116114, "fair_value": 0.128908, "relative_strength": -14.776143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.492047, "energy": 8.942934, "activity_lines": [ 0.114867, 0.114127, 0.115218, 0.115597 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.119, "volume": 15212900, "typical_volume": 6900245.0, "trend": 0.116176, "fair_value": 0.128742, "relative_strength": -15.317725, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.817808, "energy": 20.395485, "activity_lines": [ 0.116533, 0.114982, 0.115533, 0.115784 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }