{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "6e79b7c7-e189-4d5e-8939-0525fa9bb29c",
    "symbol": "AVES",
    "name": "AMERICAN CENTURY ETF TRUST AVANTIS EMERGING MKTS VALUE ETF USD",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 52.919,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 13.853,
    "architecture_energy": 16.44,
    "architecture_maturity": 14.664,
    "architecture_confidence": 89.169,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 54.87,
        "rotation_up": 22.04,
        "upward_expansion": 42.67,
        "deceleration": 78.87,
        "rotation_down": 38.77,
        "downward_expansion": 34.34
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        63.769333,
        64.297985,
        64.794173,
        64.279572
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 65.49,
    "trend_reference": 63.637975,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.029103,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 49.975546,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.310441,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -3.333584,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.039711,
    "excess_performance": -0.085914,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.029103,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.04108,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.310441,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.095729,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.033336,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.083463,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.039711,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.01901,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 525994,
      "relative_activity": 1.164152,
      "balance": 1.01901,
      "dry_up": 1.31649,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.046433,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.245294,
      "from_high_reference": -0.050181,
      "from_low_reference": 0.226801
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 63.637975,
      "fair_value_reference": 49.975546,
      "structural_low": 57.623282,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.020391,
        "positive_rate": 0.7,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.7,
        "median_excess_return": -0.003217,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.094387,
        "worst_return": -0.054583,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.066591,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.034575,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.103125,
        "worst_return": 0.033325,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.08281,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.053711,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.212177,
        "worst_return": 0.001156,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.185624,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.062254,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.202156,
        "worst_return": 0.169093,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-08",
        "end": "2024-06-21",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.133664,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-28",
        "end": "2024-07-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.022769,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-12",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.049125,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.038279,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-11-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.049286,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-08",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.043267,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.066162,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.001875,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.063416,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.113266,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.191544,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-04-24",
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        "return": 0.106778,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": -0.031587,
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "return": 0.041508,
        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 665255.95,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "trend": 61.387984,
        "fair_value": 48.533198,
        "relative_strength": -0.364069,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 553722.3,
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        "fair_value": 48.705566,
        "relative_strength": 3.299104,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": 0.607803,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 52.768391,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 579773,
        "typical_volume": 550478.45,
        "trend": 62.666451,
        "fair_value": 49.223641,
        "relative_strength": -0.638456,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 40.859689,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 408771,
        "typical_volume": 551430.3,
        "trend": 62.970023,
        "fair_value": 49.385903,
        "relative_strength": -0.838399,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.610283,
        "energy": 21.473238,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 62.93,
        "volume": 632249,
        "typical_volume": 468770.75,
        "trend": 63.161859,
        "fair_value": 49.531891,
        "relative_strength": -3.405377,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 16.619593,
        "energy": 15.500437,
        "activity_lines": [
          64.572,
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          64.909983,
          64.235397
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 62.88,
        "volume": 514809,
        "typical_volume": 438115.8,
        "trend": 63.322927,
        "fair_value": 49.66848,
        "relative_strength": -2.910957,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 3.723675,
        "energy": 12.331825,
        "activity_lines": [
          63.797333,
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          64.821395,
          64.217213
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 62.24,
        "volume": 706244,
        "typical_volume": 445974.15,
        "trend": 63.440504,
        "fair_value": 49.808838,
        "relative_strength": -4.911266,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -20.699718,
        "energy": 21.776361,
        "activity_lines": [
          63.174667,
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          64.659427,
          64.147346
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 65.49,
        "volume": 525994,
        "typical_volume": 451825.8,
        "trend": 63.637975,
        "fair_value": 49.975546,
        "relative_strength": -3.333584,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 13.852638,
        "energy": 16.439564,
        "activity_lines": [
          63.769333,
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          64.279572
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}