{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e7bbe4a-fedd-44bc-b58c-451ca511be98", "symbol": "BLU", "name": "GRP Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.09, "architecture_energy": 16.267, "architecture_maturity": 46.074, "architecture_confidence": 87.897, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.41, "rotation_up": 23.55, "upward_expansion": 53.66, "deceleration": 89.06, "rotation_down": 30.53, "downward_expansion": 19.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.061133, 0.062564, 0.061905, 0.058596 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.061, "trend_reference": 0.054333, "distance_from_trend": 0.122699, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.059032, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.033337, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.717796, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.22, "excess_performance": 0.065165, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.122699, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103588, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.033337, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176853, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007178, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.301668, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.22, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.171091, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 117000, "relative_activity": 1.743406, "balance": 3.171091, "dry_up": 0.541648, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.152585, "annualized_volatility": 1.081416, "from_high_reference": -0.175676, "from_low_reference": 0.648649 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.054333, "fair_value_reference": 0.059032, "structural_low": 0.042, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.002857, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007415, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.346154, "worst_return": -0.464286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.004945, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000525, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.461538, "worst_return": -0.1875, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.296154, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.33199, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.769231, "worst_return": -0.588571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.064103, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.098728, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.538462, "worst_return": -0.651429, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.354167, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050633, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.444444, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.224138, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06383, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward 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0.052172 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 0.06, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 121050.0, "trend": 0.049733, "fair_value": 0.060327, "relative_strength": 6.677756, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.179545, "energy": 46.81477, "activity_lines": [ 0.063533, 0.061764, 0.055686, 0.052839 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 0.061, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 73620.0, "trend": 0.050267, "fair_value": 0.060141, "relative_strength": 5.407326, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.404624, "energy": 35.555257, "activity_lines": [ 0.0628, 0.062182, 0.056562, 0.053566 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.07, "volume": 10300, "typical_volume": 65335.0, "trend": 0.051267, "fair_value": 0.059942, "relative_strength": 21.857862, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.833533, "energy": 45.205893, "activity_lines": [ 0.064733, 0.064, 0.058224, 0.054839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.065, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 64985.0, "trend": 0.0518, "fair_value": 0.059821, "relative_strength": 13.010832, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.670524, "energy": 34.502259, "activity_lines": [ 0.065267, 0.064545, 0.059314, 0.055725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.065, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 64935.0, "trend": 0.052333, "fair_value": 0.059699, "relative_strength": 8.614135, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.886301, "energy": 35.560619, "activity_lines": [ 0.065133, 0.064818, 0.06031, 0.056576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.06, "volume": 9600, "typical_volume": 65415.0, "trend": 0.0529, "fair_value": 0.059551, "relative_strength": -0.246346, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.902881, "energy": 27.65516, "activity_lines": [ 0.063733, 0.063891, 0.060733, 0.057071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.065, "volume": 11400, "typical_volume": 64410.0, "trend": 0.053567, "fair_value": 0.059333, "relative_strength": 7.582901, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.636998, "energy": 23.717318, "activity_lines": [ 0.064, 0.064127, 0.061562, 0.057852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.058, "volume": 7400, "typical_volume": 63180.0, "trend": 0.0539, "fair_value": 0.05916, "relative_strength": -3.564847, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.861617, "energy": 15.492375, "activity_lines": [ 0.061667, 0.062927, 0.061624, 0.058138 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.061, "volume": 117000, "typical_volume": 67110.0, "trend": 0.054333, "fair_value": 0.059032, "relative_strength": 0.717796, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.089618, "energy": 16.266972, "activity_lines": [ 0.061133, 0.062564, 0.061905, 0.058596 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }