{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e7ea46b-d6b6-4878-a642-5eb3de600ec4", "symbol": "SBEM", "name": "UBS BBG USD EM Sovereign UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.662, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.96, "architecture_energy": 23.417, "architecture_maturity": 59.286, "architecture_confidence": 71.835, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.47, "rotation_up": 17.89, "upward_expansion": 51.74, "deceleration": 93.91, "rotation_down": 38.94, "downward_expansion": 20.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 713.608333, 717.911364, 715.827381, 713.117368 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 714.0, "trend_reference": 711.459298, "distance_from_trend": 0.003571, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 701.46668, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.017867, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.453025, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.007998, "excess_performance": -0.059233, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003571, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001756, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.017867, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010927, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07453, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018437, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007998, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.199026, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1497, "relative_activity": 0.1526, "balance": 0.199026, "dry_up": 0.605023, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013386, "annualized_volatility": 0.071257, "from_high_reference": -0.028573, "from_low_reference": 0.055789 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 711.459298, "fair_value_reference": 701.46668, "structural_low": 687.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.00822, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.012914, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.024083, "worst_return": -0.030394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.017484, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.071509, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.04366, "worst_return": -0.066184, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.01421, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.089009, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.017798, "worst_return": -0.090978, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.05244, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007409, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.035091, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035649, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013589, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": 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711.809465, "fair_value": 701.194745, "relative_strength": -8.116334, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.89093, "energy": 21.073613, "activity_lines": [ 714.691667, 718.990909, 715.520238, 712.976043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 714.0, "volume": 1497, "typical_volume": 9809.95, "trend": 711.459298, "fair_value": 701.46668, "relative_strength": -7.453025, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.960145, "energy": 23.417439, "activity_lines": [ 713.608333, 717.911364, 715.827381, 713.117368 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }