{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e81a128-2499-4e74-a7e5-e617d56e3d2b", "symbol": "SPX", "name": "Spenda Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.429, "architecture_energy": 83.124, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.65, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 32.39, "deceleration": 43.03, "rotation_down": 52.31, "downward_expansion": 82.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0036, 0.00352, 0.009699, 0.017706 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.003, "trend_reference": 0.028521, "distance_from_trend": -0.894814, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.143177, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.979047, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -94.404789, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.95, "excess_performance": -1.013706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.894814, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.397023, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.979047, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167605, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.944048, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.298159, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.95, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.48901, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1049062, "relative_activity": 0.616224, "balance": 0.48901, "dry_up": 1.817395, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 1.192308, "annualized_volatility": 1.868555, "from_high_reference": -0.983333, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.028521, "fair_value_reference": 0.143177, "structural_low": 0.0025, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.358974, "directional_follow_through": 0.435897, "median_excess_return": -0.018688, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.444444, "worst_return": -0.8125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.142857, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.125968, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.925, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.125, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.163985, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.72, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.120596, "energy": 84.615227, "activity_lines": [ 0.003333, 0.005209, 0.01468, 0.023159 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.004, "volume": 2236357, "typical_volume": 1531255.35, "trend": 0.031954, "fair_value": 0.14544, "relative_strength": -92.912227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.812917, "energy": 84.378113, "activity_lines": [ 0.0036, 0.004398, 0.012848, 0.021257 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.004, "volume": 3901932, "typical_volume": 1684874.45, "trend": 0.030087, "fair_value": 0.144312, "relative_strength": -92.732242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.076132, "energy": 82.161727, "activity_lines": [ 0.0038, 0.003895, 0.011236, 0.019453 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.003, "volume": 1049062, "typical_volume": 1702404.7, "trend": 0.028521, "fair_value": 0.143177, "relative_strength": -94.404789, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.429287, "energy": 83.124476, "activity_lines": [ 0.0036, 0.00352, 0.009699, 0.017706 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }