{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e835030-3a34-4c92-8934-6be241f2a7f2", "symbol": "ADS", "name": "adidas AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.832, "architecture_energy": 26.843, "architecture_maturity": 61.786, "architecture_confidence": 69.436, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.02, "rotation_up": 26.08, "upward_expansion": 59.84, "deceleration": 88.32, "rotation_down": 33.74, "downward_expansion": 23.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 168.146664, 172.930907, 167.139342, 160.808734 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 163.949997, "trend_reference": 154.696188, "distance_from_trend": 0.059819, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 188.456105, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.130036, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.148312, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.093864, "excess_performance": -0.080383, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059819, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030672, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.130036, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088197, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.171483, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095704, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093864, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.166607, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 170, "relative_activity": 0.759437, "balance": 0.166607, "dry_up": 3.0478, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065358, "annualized_volatility": 0.351381, "from_high_reference": -0.14583, "from_low_reference": 0.279946 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 154.696188, "fair_value_reference": 188.456105, "structural_low": 128.091294, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.008189, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.01231, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.114662, "worst_return": -0.123039, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.082668, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.081104, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.10494, "worst_return": -0.169079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.066754, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.081553, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.296387, "worst_return": -0.300329, "sufficient": true 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006275, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001261, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.108509, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046913, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Extended", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.848709, "energy": 86.878067, "activity_lines": [ 181.326664, 174.633635, 161.670071, 156.953233 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 180.5, "volume": 264, "typical_volume": 155.45, "trend": 154.534123, "fair_value": 188.651868, "relative_strength": -6.938199, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.364963, "energy": 83.012474, "activity_lines": [ 181.523332, 176.93909, 164.285539, 158.666434 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 174.050003, "volume": 112, "typical_volume": 123.7, "trend": 154.942213, "fair_value": 188.61733, "relative_strength": -10.641699, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.482704, "energy": 61.000681, "activity_lines": [ 179.303334, 177.463636, 166.168496, 159.925523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 159.399994, "volume": 2183, "typical_volume": 231.25, "trend": 154.71801, "fair_value": 188.512376, "relative_strength": -17.560398, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.635733, "energy": 33.261685, "activity_lines": [ 172.239998, 174.822726, 166.492983, 160.213122 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 163.949997, "volume": 170, "typical_volume": 223.85, "trend": 154.696188, "fair_value": 188.456105, "relative_strength": -17.148312, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.832126, "energy": 26.842809, "activity_lines": [ 168.146664, 172.930907, 167.139342, 160.808734 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }