{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e84655a-7ccf-4d5e-92e5-8749b17af479", "symbol": "HAMLET-B", "name": "Hamlet BioPharma AB ser. B", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.358, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -0.378, "architecture_energy": 7.225, "architecture_maturity": 8.794, "architecture_confidence": 70.405, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.84, "rotation_up": 24.24, "upward_expansion": 44.88, "deceleration": 75.07, "rotation_down": 27.24, "downward_expansion": 29.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.287333, 7.376909, 7.473429, 7.390602 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.91, "trend_reference": 7.058333, "distance_from_trend": -0.021015, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.209893, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.641372, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.382139, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.306238, "excess_performance": 0.244744, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021015, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114063, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.641372, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.351559, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023821, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.277627, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.306238, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.434597, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 483101, "relative_activity": 1.081476, "balance": 0.434597, "dry_up": 0.967079, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085717, "annualized_volatility": 0.478446, "from_high_reference": -0.228795, "from_low_reference": 0.7275 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.058333, "fair_value_reference": 4.209893, "structural_low": 4.8, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.01632, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.025973, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.494078, "worst_return": -0.149333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.019073, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.056091, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.620253, "worst_return": -0.452055, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.025007, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.022532, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.318987, "worst_return": -0.581787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.118421, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02381, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.250633, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045113, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.044146, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.229048, "energy": 24.530216, "activity_lines": [ 7.546667, 7.446182, 7.576095, 7.283656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.5, "volume": 675960, "typical_volume": 583288.85, "trend": 6.879667, "fair_value": 4.125845, "relative_strength": 12.229857, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.332469, "energy": 24.243641, "activity_lines": [ 7.56, 7.459636, 7.576762, 7.328753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.4, "volume": 216750, "typical_volume": 570089.3, "trend": 6.951, "fair_value": 4.154161, "relative_strength": 8.500181, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.774732, "energy": 21.733921, "activity_lines": [ 7.516667, 7.457273, 7.560048, 7.362323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.49, "volume": 352187, "typical_volume": 487712.25, "trend": 7.010667, "fair_value": 4.184164, "relative_strength": 8.018228, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.578422, "energy": 16.444839, "activity_lines": [ 7.498667, 7.469091, 7.54481, 7.397097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.91, "volume": 483101, "typical_volume": 446705.3, "trend": 7.058333, "fair_value": 4.209893, "relative_strength": -2.382139, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.378, "energy": 7.22512, "activity_lines": [ 7.287333, 7.376909, 7.473429, 7.390602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }