{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e87b10d-64a7-4683-8403-426c76ff522a", "symbol": "TMCI", "name": "Treace Medical Concepts Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.831, "architecture_energy": 54.017, "architecture_maturity": 71.337, "architecture_confidence": 80.711, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.24, "rotation_up": 52.96, "upward_expansion": 81.84, "deceleration": 68.31, "rotation_down": 26.67, "downward_expansion": 8.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.397333, 4.318182, 3.771619, 3.267484 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.76, "trend_reference": 2.761, "distance_from_trend": 0.724013, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.075128, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.327221, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.684034, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.106195, "excess_performance": 0.918741, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.724013, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.183708, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.327221, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.443428, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.10684, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.718424, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.106195, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.623328, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2893038, "relative_activity": 0.79881, "balance": 5.623328, "dry_up": 0.572107, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.152235, "annualized_volatility": 0.879847, "from_high_reference": -0.388175, "from_low_reference": 3.068376 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.761, "fair_value_reference": 7.075128, "structural_low": 1.17, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.006243, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018419, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.083995, "worst_return": -0.148805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.035447, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.125901, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.080706, "worst_return": -0.322054, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.267339, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.27695, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.019143, "worst_return": -0.612087, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.585252, "energy": 54.402142, "activity_lines": [ 4.202667, 4.125636, 3.463476, 3.026688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.31, "volume": 1544665, "typical_volume": 3614850.25, "trend": 2.699, "fair_value": 7.150641, "relative_strength": 3.93826, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.522523, "energy": 51.457989, "activity_lines": [ 4.22, 4.194909, 3.602905, 3.134516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.76, "volume": 2893038, "typical_volume": 3621683.5, "trend": 2.761, "fair_value": 7.075128, "relative_strength": 10.684034, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.830987, "energy": 54.017169, "activity_lines": [ 4.397333, 4.318182, 3.771619, 3.267484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }