{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e8a4fc7-d759-4840-9385-7fbba2936d37", "symbol": "USLM", "name": "United States Lime & Minerals Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.976, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.927, "architecture_energy": 12.874, "architecture_maturity": 60.555, "architecture_confidence": 48.675, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.34, "rotation_up": 33.59, "upward_expansion": 19.22, "deceleration": 42.11, "rotation_down": 24.33, "downward_expansion": 57.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 112.367667, 109.956182, 110.957514, 113.245734 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 120.065, "trend_reference": 115.766535, "distance_from_trend": 0.03713, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 93.198385, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.288273, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.564852, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.107316, "excess_performance": -0.080138, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03713, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039881, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.288273, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030718, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125649, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098073, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.107316, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.692996, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 693950, "relative_activity": 0.746576, "balance": 1.692996, "dry_up": 0.897918, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079069, "annualized_volatility": 0.420781, "from_high_reference": -0.150614, "from_low_reference": 0.247169 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 115.766535, "fair_value_reference": 93.198385, "structural_low": 96.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.008067, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.018545, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.237769, "worst_return": -0.075968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.035437, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.004051, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.379344, "worst_return": -0.108819, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.236983, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.106779, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.506812, "worst_return": -0.121653, "sufficient": false }, { 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31.244461, "activity_lines": [ 108.336667, 108.418853, 113.900238, 115.734492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 101.08, "volume": 1068523, "typical_volume": 889675.35, "trend": 117.725558, "fair_value": 91.404992, "relative_strength": -27.465156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.252645, "energy": 38.099325, "activity_lines": [ 106.000667, 107.082367, 112.435464, 114.596942 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 104.97, "volume": 645056, "typical_volume": 905763.9, "trend": 116.977303, "fair_value": 91.812917, "relative_strength": -21.119677, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.321997, "energy": 43.602001, "activity_lines": [ 105.196667, 106.614203, 111.37797, 113.774003 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 110.99, "volume": 685044, "typical_volume": 912395.85, "trend": 116.45835, "fair_value": 92.265345, "relative_strength": -15.004828, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.005243, "energy": 32.02265, "activity_lines": [ 106.627333, 107.331273, 110.937262, 113.387725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 110.3, "volume": 1314446, "typical_volume": 950612.4, "trend": 116.107516, "fair_value": 92.702221, "relative_strength": -15.835981, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.186181, "energy": 25.772826, "activity_lines": [ 108.002, 107.794727, 110.461287, 112.990412 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 120.065, "volume": 693950, "typical_volume": 929510.6, "trend": 115.766535, "fair_value": 93.198385, "relative_strength": -12.564852, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.926556, "energy": 12.873766, "activity_lines": [ 112.367667, 109.956182, 110.957514, 113.245734 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }