{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e8ef4ad-d0a2-476e-9434-07d2d81e60ab", "symbol": "VNSE", "name": "NATIXIS ETF TR II VAUGHAN NELSON SELECT ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.037, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.521, "architecture_energy": 59.148, "architecture_maturity": 42.195, "architecture_confidence": 68.771, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.18, "rotation_up": 54.98, "upward_expansion": 79.79, "deceleration": 60.81, "rotation_down": 25.36, "downward_expansion": 8.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.907287, 41.648149, 41.307143, 40.576718 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 42.8081, "trend_reference": 39.843183, "distance_from_trend": 0.074415, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.678771, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.234418, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.496983, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.084041, "excess_performance": -0.041584, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074415, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026098, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.234418, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013993, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02497, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003447, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084041, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.150557, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65, "relative_activity": 0.034425, "balance": 0.150557, "dry_up": 0.281095, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019289, "annualized_volatility": 0.142062, "from_high_reference": -0.00828, "from_low_reference": 0.216614 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.843183, "fair_value_reference": 34.678771, "structural_low": 35.18626, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.009187, "positive_rate": 0.566667, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.006679, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.067272, "worst_return": -0.08707, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.024086, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.014557, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.102543, "worst_return": -0.083337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.058681, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.021408, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.093165, "worst_return": -0.133684, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-10", "close": 41.8012, "volume": 245, "typical_volume": 1916.8, "trend": 39.446967, "fair_value": 34.365607, "relative_strength": -2.872014, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.434849, "energy": 53.552872, "activity_lines": [ 41.418673, 41.383169, 40.614134, 40.025985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.1908, "volume": 85, "typical_volume": 1818.85, "trend": 39.552517, "fair_value": 34.440025, "relative_strength": -2.694444, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.315141, "energy": 43.889264, "activity_lines": [ 41.35778, 41.356067, 40.760337, 40.13849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.222, "volume": 242, "typical_volume": 1822.8, "trend": 39.633116, "fair_value": 34.513297, "relative_strength": -1.960467, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.676088, "energy": 41.970504, "activity_lines": [ 41.3071, 41.331993, 40.897546, 40.246199 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.68, "volume": 1731, "typical_volume": 1893.1, "trend": 39.731938, "fair_value": 34.592558, "relative_strength": -1.83463, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.220722, "energy": 48.654633, "activity_lines": [ 41.4492, 41.390771, 41.060427, 40.378256 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.8081, "volume": 65, "typical_volume": 1888.15, "trend": 39.843183, "fair_value": 34.678771, "relative_strength": -2.496983, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.520921, "energy": 59.148328, "activity_lines": [ 41.907287, 41.648149, 41.307143, 40.576718 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }