{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e900ef1-e92e-4cef-98e5-b81f8735f1fb", "symbol": "U-UN", "name": "Sprott Physical Uranium Trust Fund", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 49.589, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.707, "architecture_energy": 29.386, "architecture_maturity": 15.71, "architecture_confidence": 92.537, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.79, "rotation_up": 22.73, "upward_expansion": 7.28, "deceleration": 43.47, "rotation_down": 46.13, "downward_expansion": 71.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.336, 26.437454, 26.693809, 26.940021 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 26.969999, "trend_reference": 27.508333, "distance_from_trend": -0.01957, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.605513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.053289, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.374608, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.042259, "excess_performance": -0.16268, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01957, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007767, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.053289, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036808, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103746, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03369, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042259, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.846719, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6452800, "relative_activity": 1.693457, "balance": 0.846719, "dry_up": 1.741523, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046719, "annualized_volatility": 0.248938, "from_high_reference": -0.187406, "from_low_reference": 0.212135 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.508333, "fair_value_reference": 25.605513, "structural_low": 25.209999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.014456, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.008243, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.174074, "worst_return": -0.100223, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.040977, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.036364, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.314623, "worst_return": -0.111654, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.09971, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.014157, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.51541, "worst_return": -0.068218, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 26.517333, 26.559455, 26.871429, 27.176753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.549999, "volume": 2911000, "typical_volume": 3507845.0, "trend": 27.594667, "fair_value": 25.501923, "relative_strength": -9.633641, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.443561, "energy": 23.672983, "activity_lines": [ 26.495333, 26.540545, 26.827428, 27.109097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.540001, "volume": 13255700, "typical_volume": 3884370.0, "trend": 27.536, "fair_value": 25.548846, "relative_strength": -12.484516, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.697423, "energy": 42.332772, "activity_lines": [ 26.157333, 26.347818, 26.688714, 26.976538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.969999, "volume": 6452800, "typical_volume": 3810430.0, "trend": 27.508333, "fair_value": 25.605513, "relative_strength": -10.374608, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.706522, "energy": 29.385817, "activity_lines": [ 26.336, 26.437454, 26.693809, 26.940021 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }