{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e96da30-99bd-40fa-ad08-497c5f808af9", "symbol": "UFPI", "name": "Ufp Industries Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 60.196, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 4.32, "architecture_energy": 9.882, "architecture_maturity": 13.146, "architecture_confidence": 65.528, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.03, "rotation_up": 30.48, "upward_expansion": 29.95, "deceleration": 46.01, "rotation_down": 22.44, "downward_expansion": 45.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 89.177333, 88.340364, 86.903202, 88.457621 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 94.04, "trend_reference": 92.220742, "distance_from_trend": 0.019727, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 104.494398, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.100047, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.992612, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.169789, "excess_performance": -0.357243, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019727, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017865, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.100047, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098587, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119926, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.156014, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.169789, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.670526, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2497502, "relative_activity": 1.079688, "balance": 1.670526, "dry_up": 1.047932, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062346, "annualized_volatility": 0.325841, "from_high_reference": -0.196595, "from_low_reference": 0.212814 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 92.220742, "fair_value_reference": 104.494398, "structural_low": 77.538705, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.015111, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.001144, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.147571, "worst_return": -0.093636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.084196, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.069391, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.292736, "worst_return": -0.115256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.140111, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.096896, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.379553, "worst_return": 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.013241, "energy": 24.921692, "activity_lines": [ 87.678667, 85.614485, 86.394532, 89.50881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 85.93, "volume": 1959416, "typical_volume": 2208180.0, "trend": 92.789575, "fair_value": 104.657921, "relative_strength": -17.885858, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.054539, "energy": 20.257066, "activity_lines": [ 87.165333, 85.930667, 86.187453, 89.05219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 87.94, "volume": 2073012, "typical_volume": 2245330.55, "trend": 92.65144, "fair_value": 104.593683, "relative_strength": -14.00358, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.10472, "energy": 11.193923, "activity_lines": [ 87.230667, 86.577202, 86.248721, 88.739314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 86.74, "volume": 3166252, "typical_volume": 2326439.4, "trend": 92.494796, "fair_value": 104.51608, "relative_strength": -15.112743, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.391471, "energy": 17.637855, "activity_lines": [ 86.805333, 86.854812, 86.222258, 88.357931 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 94.04, "volume": 2497502, "typical_volume": 2313169.7, "trend": 92.220742, "fair_value": 104.494398, "relative_strength": -11.992612, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.319901, "energy": 9.882441, "activity_lines": [ 89.177333, 88.340364, 86.903202, 88.457621 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }