{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6e9aa82d-a4f9-45b8-afdb-cb7f1b503997", "symbol": "IPOK", "name": "Heidelberger Beteiligungsholding AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.149, "architecture_energy": 81.725, "architecture_maturity": 23.286, "architecture_confidence": 92.35, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.43, "rotation_up": 12.64, "upward_expansion": 19.88, "deceleration": 38.46, "rotation_down": 72.16, "downward_expansion": 93.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 133.133333, 139.963636, 161.928571, 171.526882 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 136.0, "trend_reference": 179.2, "distance_from_trend": -0.241071, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 97.216955, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.398933, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.475536, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.204678, "excess_performance": -0.269318, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.241071, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047953, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.398933, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.947913, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164755, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.710373, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.204678, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.279198, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 144, "relative_activity": 0.524686, "balance": 0.279198, "dry_up": 0.794316, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111425, "annualized_volatility": 0.558972, "from_high_reference": -0.433333, "from_low_reference": 0.658537 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 179.2, "fair_value_reference": 97.216955, "structural_low": 117.0, 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54.921446, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.826856, "energy": 51.976769, "activity_lines": [ 212.0, 206.563636, 193.990476, 179.021505 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "close": 210.0, "volume": 127, "typical_volume": 569.0, "trend": 161.5, "fair_value": 89.481812, "relative_strength": 54.561775, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.392893, "energy": 48.667297, "activity_lines": [ 211.333333, 208.109091, 196.814286, 182.376344 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 195.0, "volume": 360, "typical_volume": 575.0, "trend": 164.333333, "fair_value": 90.281524, "relative_strength": 43.292291, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.103564, "energy": 29.213216, "activity_lines": [ 205.133333, 206.618182, 197.814286, 184.537634 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 210.0, "volume": 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"2026-06-12", "close": 175.0, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 507.45, "trend": 175.6, "fair_value": 93.422678, "relative_strength": 17.839046, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.515658, "energy": 12.674704, "activity_lines": [ 188.8, 196.945455, 198.038095, 190.632258 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 171.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 431.8, "trend": 177.766667, "fair_value": 94.07764, "relative_strength": 12.916135, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -9.593084, "energy": 24.082732, "activity_lines": [ 181.4, 191.054545, 195.8, 190.335484 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 161.0, "volume": 35, "typical_volume": 394.35, "trend": 179.0, "fair_value": 94.668499, "relative_strength": 7.006861, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.615687, "energy": 52.134287, "activity_lines": [ 172.266667, 184.127273, 192.738095, 189.253763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 140.0, "volume": 156, "typical_volume": 350.45, "trend": 179.4, "fair_value": 95.140663, "relative_strength": -11.310901, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.766691, "energy": 72.981742, "activity_lines": [ 159.4, 174.672727, 187.72381, 186.737634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 136.0, "volume": 69, "typical_volume": 344.7, "trend": 179.7, "fair_value": 95.578089, "relative_strength": -11.735222, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -59.131742, "energy": 82.800019, "activity_lines": [ 149.333333, 165.690909, 182.447619, 183.937634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 131.0, "volume": 267, "typical_volume": 313.6, "trend": 179.833333, "fair_value": 95.981189, "relative_strength": -14.459873, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -57.064851, "energy": 84.215997, "activity_lines": [ 140.8, 157.072727, 176.833333, 180.795699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 117.0, "volume": 219, "typical_volume": 270.4, "trend": 179.266667, "fair_value": 96.294545, "relative_strength": -24.464951, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.667295, "energy": 96.051875, "activity_lines": [ 130.533333, 147.345455, 170.180952, 176.741935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 142.0, "volume": 242, "typical_volume": 272.15, "trend": 179.566667, "fair_value": 96.774981, "relative_strength": -10.386052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.997897, "energy": 87.434867, "activity_lines": [ 132.2, 143.581818, 166.22381, 174.337634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 136.0, "volume": 144, "typical_volume": 274.45, "trend": 179.2, "fair_value": 97.216955, "relative_strength": -16.475536, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.148599, "energy": 81.725204, "activity_lines": [ 133.133333, 139.963636, 161.928571, 171.526882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }