{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "6ea2bb59-fed6-4bdb-9f19-1060cb7d63bf",
    "symbol": "AIAI",
    "name": "L&G Artificial Intelligence UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 61.749,
    "architecture_energy": 41.626,
    "architecture_maturity": 75.265,
    "architecture_confidence": 91.841,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 21.44,
        "rotation_up": 39.65,
        "upward_expansion": 64.51,
        "deceleration": 85.49,
        "rotation_down": 27.83,
        "downward_expansion": 23.51
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        33.141,
        33.340636,
        32.301452,
        30.442333
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 34.639999,
    "trend_reference": 28.201167,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.228318,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 20.873853,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.659492,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 13.321844,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.501843,
    "excess_performance": 0.330951,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.228318,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.120784,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.659492,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.137967,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.133218,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.019543,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.501843,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.373876,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 388047,
      "relative_activity": 1.702983,
      "balance": 3.373876,
      "dry_up": 1.065178,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.053629,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.306646,
      "from_high_reference": -0.016049,
      "from_low_reference": 0.67343
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 28.201167,
      "fair_value_reference": 20.873853,
      "structural_low": 21.764999,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.001122,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.013376,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.146195,
        "worst_return": -0.078437,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.088326,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.031254,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.123411,
        "worst_return": -0.046729,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.147848,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.098825,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.360423,
        "worst_return": 0.096116,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.152844,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.012287,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.315083,
        "worst_return": -0.009394,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-09-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.052339,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-09-13",
        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.096112,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.099324,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.153222,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.123627,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.024141,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.050012,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.053214,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.018895,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-02-06",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.004336,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.227438,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-05-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.095655,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "return": 0.072609,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 202991.05,
        "trend": 24.328667,
        "fair_value": 19.200622,
        "relative_strength": 4.314432,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 234516.85,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "direction": 93.6072,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 266636.65,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 256915.75,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 225026.4,
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        "fair_value": 20.146615,
        "relative_strength": 16.425759,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.04932,
        "energy": 69.218953,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 216786.1,
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        "relative_strength": 17.568575,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 213047.2,
        "trend": 27.084333,
        "fair_value": 20.405853,
        "relative_strength": 17.438554,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.678489,
        "energy": 68.436728,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 32.029999,
        "volume": 231328,
        "typical_volume": 216530.15,
        "trend": 27.3465,
        "fair_value": 20.516737,
        "relative_strength": 9.736715,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.106692,
        "energy": 61.187666,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.551666,
          33.464818,
          31.261238,
          29.39928
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 32.23,
        "volume": 142663,
        "typical_volume": 213198.15,
        "trend": 27.610667,
        "fair_value": 20.628237,
        "relative_strength": 10.200854,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 51.629523,
        "energy": 51.520609,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.041333,
          33.310454,
          31.575928,
          29.714344
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 32.130001,
        "volume": 208821,
        "typical_volume": 216364.6,
        "trend": 27.8755,
        "fair_value": 20.741186,
        "relative_strength": 8.72187,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.376552,
        "energy": 37.916087,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.639333,
          33.096545,
          31.840024,
          30.005914
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 34.639999,
        "volume": 388047,
        "typical_volume": 227863.15,
        "trend": 28.201167,
        "fair_value": 20.873853,
        "relative_strength": 13.321844,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.749307,
        "energy": 41.626086,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.141,
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          30.442333
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}