{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ea52c35-fdc1-42f2-8c02-73b524f4c937", "symbol": "JHEM", "name": "JOHN HANCOCK EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR MULTIFACTOR EMERGING MARKETS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 69.565, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.693, "architecture_energy": 15.719, "architecture_maturity": 28.047, "architecture_confidence": 81.312, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.81, "rotation_up": 22.58, "upward_expansion": 47.23, "deceleration": 84.27, "rotation_down": 34.68, "downward_expansion": 27.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.548187, 38.892949, 38.945119, 38.266747 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 39.3098, "trend_reference": 37.375691, "distance_from_trend": 0.051748, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.489592, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.379795, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.639297, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.098499, "excess_performance": -0.027126, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051748, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063493, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.379795, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101406, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006393, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10646, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.098499, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.604297, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 111567, "relative_activity": 0.299408, "balance": 0.604297, "dry_up": 0.687629, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049524, "annualized_volatility": 0.27042, "from_high_reference": -0.06283, "from_low_reference": 0.346424 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.375691, "fair_value_reference": 28.489592, "structural_low": 32.95, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.017955, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.008994, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.023521, "worst_return": -0.101812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.010024, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.029565, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.056231, "worst_return": -0.084619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.010426, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.059731, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.149824, "worst_return": -0.199569, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"energy": 20.547908, "activity_lines": [ 39.064014, 39.414469, 38.793535, 38.000114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.8511, "volume": 448889, "typical_volume": 436235.3, "trend": 37.049894, "fair_value": 28.289464, "relative_strength": 1.74999, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.067551, "energy": 19.383933, "activity_lines": [ 38.496307, 39.12563, 38.805841, 38.062744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.1021, "volume": 71312, "typical_volume": 434049.4, "trend": 37.199964, "fair_value": 28.384104, "relative_strength": 1.141955, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.058493, "energy": 17.102653, "activity_lines": [ 38.272207, 38.891898, 38.826809, 38.130628 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.3098, "volume": 111567, "typical_volume": 372625.7, "trend": 37.375691, "fair_value": 28.489592, "relative_strength": 0.639297, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.692872, "energy": 15.719136, "activity_lines": [ 38.548187, 38.892949, 38.945119, 38.266747 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }