{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ea57b93-15e8-441f-8e28-bb960522e359", "symbol": "MTSA4", "name": "METISA Metal\u00fargica Timboense S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 65.449, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.763, "architecture_energy": 35.24, "architecture_maturity": 68.24, "architecture_confidence": 84.546, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.82, "rotation_up": 27.25, "upward_expansion": 17.86, "deceleration": 46.81, "rotation_down": 34.67, "downward_expansion": 65.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.226667, 46.472727, 48.786476, 51.454602 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 47.889999, "trend_reference": 53.357, "distance_from_trend": -0.102461, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.759988, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.146791, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.347439, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.079038, "excess_performance": -0.02199, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102461, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002451, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.146791, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.253568, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043474, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102804, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.079038, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.132743, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1000, "relative_activity": 0.095238, "balance": 0.132743, "dry_up": 0.4, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077116, "annualized_volatility": 0.350068, "from_high_reference": -0.262209, "from_low_reference": 0.328945 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.357, "fair_value_reference": 41.759988, "structural_low": 40.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.00749, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.009843, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.109735, "worst_return": -0.11368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.039319, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.095105, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.304688, "worst_return": -0.145311, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.1611, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.116371, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.279492, "worst_return": -0.138536, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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82.247597, "activity_lines": [ 47.170667, 51.655091, 55.769143, 55.24419 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 42.799999, "volume": 42100, "typical_volume": 10705.0, "trend": 53.483109, "fair_value": 41.509737, "relative_strength": -13.646238, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -59.07607, "energy": 85.500093, "activity_lines": [ 44.998666, 49.413636, 54.426476, 54.562927 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 44.110001, "volume": 1700, "typical_volume": 10535.0, "trend": 53.41518, "fair_value": 41.537468, "relative_strength": -13.248217, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.367808, "energy": 79.768435, "activity_lines": [ 44.176667, 47.777637, 53.242715, 53.95821 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 46.91, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 10385.0, "trend": 53.496079, "fair_value": 41.589312, "relative_strength": -8.145809, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.014394, "energy": 63.979639, "activity_lines": [ 44.88, 46.978182, 52.363191, 53.538521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 48.0, "volume": 9100, "typical_volume": 10770.0, "trend": 53.537, "fair_value": 41.648515, "relative_strength": -7.769342, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.072973, "energy": 63.389084, "activity_lines": [ 46.038667, 46.658364, 51.618572, 53.183936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.009998, "volume": 5500, "typical_volume": 10645.0, "trend": 53.465333, "fair_value": 41.674735, "relative_strength": -11.188535, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.712484, "energy": 56.780505, "activity_lines": [ 45.919999, 46.009272, 50.633333, 52.633806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.990002, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 10405.0, "trend": 53.338333, "fair_value": 41.698754, "relative_strength": -11.181934, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.524096, "energy": 47.686172, "activity_lines": [ 45.794667, 45.581818, 49.727429, 52.087011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.990002, "volume": 6300, "typical_volume": 10590.0, "trend": 53.344, "fair_value": 41.731621, "relative_strength": -5.231333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.134661, "energy": 37.856224, "activity_lines": [ 46.856667, 46.090909, 49.278619, 51.806473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.889999, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 10500.0, "trend": 53.357, "fair_value": 41.759988, "relative_strength": -4.347439, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.763407, "energy": 35.239961, "activity_lines": [ 47.226667, 46.472727, 48.786476, 51.454602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }