{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6eaa335f-34ed-423e-98be-da52d56ec296", "symbol": "BYW", "name": "BayWa Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.279, "architecture_energy": 80.799, "architecture_maturity": 42.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.694, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.87, "rotation_up": 17.26, "upward_expansion": 17.91, "deceleration": 38.82, "rotation_down": 74.28, "downward_expansion": 95.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.406667, 10.02, 11.132381, 12.171505 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 8.58, "trend_reference": 13.646, "distance_from_trend": -0.371244, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.854473, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.332528, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.743606, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.499708, "excess_performance": -0.564348, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.371244, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114758, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.332528, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.486381, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.387436, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.66367, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.499708, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.122077, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 497, "relative_activity": 0.758431, "balance": 0.122077, "dry_up": 0.998016, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.168818, "annualized_volatility": 0.71932, "from_high_reference": -0.593365, "from_low_reference": 0.263397 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.646, "fair_value_reference": 12.854473, "structural_low": 8.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.023741, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.035227, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.874374, "worst_return": -0.258065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.06963, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.096347, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.266254, "worst_return": -0.228216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.058893, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.192974, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.793868, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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53.393271, "activity_lines": [ 12.533333, 12.975455, 13.773571, 14.600753 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 10.2, "volume": 1581, "typical_volume": 548.7, "trend": 15.35, "fair_value": 13.38505, "relative_strength": -22.837948, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.973841, "energy": 61.075091, "activity_lines": [ 11.716667, 12.449091, 13.349524, 14.261183 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 11.2, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 528.35, "trend": 15.273333, "fair_value": 13.311072, "relative_strength": -14.442266, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.051584, "energy": 50.511213, "activity_lines": [ 11.503333, 12.155455, 13.050714, 13.993441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 11.25, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 511.55, "trend": 15.015, "fair_value": 13.233444, "relative_strength": -18.028573, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.162023, "energy": 64.759439, "activity_lines": [ 11.306667, 11.899091, 12.785, 13.733871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.0, "volume": 1754, "typical_volume": 598.0, "trend": 14.73, "fair_value": 13.156878, "relative_strength": -25.084571, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.587379, "energy": 74.478951, "activity_lines": [ 10.723333, 11.444545, 12.427381, 13.410323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.0, "volume": 944, "typical_volume": 609.65, "trend": 14.466667, "fair_value": 13.08173, "relative_strength": -24.387637, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.855646, "energy": 69.222198, "activity_lines": [ 10.423333, 11.047273, 12.10119, 13.105161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.8, "volume": 743, "typical_volume": 646.0, "trend": 14.161667, "fair_value": 13.01154, "relative_strength": -26.718847, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.954519, "energy": 74.863776, "activity_lines": [ 10.18, 10.721818, 11.789286, 12.804086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.7, "volume": 432, "typical_volume": 637.7, "trend": 13.923333, "fair_value": 12.933051, "relative_strength": -28.969178, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.60634, "energy": 72.238067, "activity_lines": [ 9.93, 10.459091, 11.497381, 12.516237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.58, "volume": 497, "typical_volume": 655.3, "trend": 13.646, "fair_value": 12.854473, "relative_strength": -38.743606, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.279057, "energy": 80.798588, "activity_lines": [ 9.406667, 10.02, 11.132381, 12.171505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }