{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6eae4fec-af21-4448-b5a5-6ac89a770960", "symbol": "603167", "name": "Bohai Ferry Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.946, "architecture_energy": 23.516, "architecture_maturity": 96.373, "architecture_confidence": 73.265, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.57, "rotation_up": 27.83, "upward_expansion": 20.98, "deceleration": 46.96, "rotation_down": 24.16, "downward_expansion": 57.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.654, 8.572909, 8.705637, 8.869866 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.7, "trend_reference": 9.082979, "distance_from_trend": -0.042165, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.141356, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.068618, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.893674, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.099379, "excess_performance": -0.056175, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042165, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04704, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.068618, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082794, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068937, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066545, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.099379, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.542355, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20682301, "relative_activity": 1.005114, "balance": 0.542355, "dry_up": 1.065234, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031111, "annualized_volatility": 0.138185, "from_high_reference": -0.193698, "from_low_reference": 0.058394 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.082979, "fair_value_reference": 8.141356, "structural_low": 8.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.016113, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": 0.007138, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.18884, "worst_return": -0.115584, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.00611, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004616, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.07485, "worst_return": -0.096112, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.030568, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.008312, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.352559, "worst_return": -0.119384, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -5.983982, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.325613, "energy": 48.112094, "activity_lines": [ 8.505076, 8.525068, 8.738012, 8.920057 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.76, "volume": 20100331, "typical_volume": 21440941.8, "trend": 9.107313, "fair_value": 8.123224, "relative_strength": -4.019356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.520964, "energy": 34.395491, "activity_lines": [ 8.60648, 8.551625, 8.722825, 8.896144 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.7, "volume": 20682301, "typical_volume": 20577073.3, "trend": 9.082979, "fair_value": 8.141356, "relative_strength": -6.893674, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.945503, "energy": 23.516457, "activity_lines": [ 8.654, 8.572909, 8.705637, 8.869866 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }