{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6eb17f52-dee3-4dda-b5f0-0afd405b2767", "symbol": "OLY", "name": "Olympia Financial Group Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.943, "architecture_energy": 46.058, "architecture_maturity": 22.486, "architecture_confidence": 88.671, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.17, "rotation_up": 25.42, "upward_expansion": 6.8, "deceleration": 56.85, "rotation_down": 45.17, "downward_expansion": 75.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 104.468458, 104.76592, 107.586507, 110.3281 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 103.25, "trend_reference": 112.996171, "distance_from_trend": -0.086252, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 99.507241, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.037613, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.627956, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.09223, "excess_performance": -0.212652, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086252, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017927, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.037613, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220602, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.19628, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123836, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09223, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.395487, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5700, "relative_activity": 0.670983, "balance": 0.395487, "dry_up": 0.868158, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045517, "annualized_volatility": 0.225207, "from_high_reference": -0.195169, "from_low_reference": 0.036922 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 112.996171, "fair_value_reference": 99.507241, "structural_low": 99.573572, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.011742, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": 0.006529, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.127369, "worst_return": -0.038352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.041906, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.03442, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.342419, "worst_return": -0.076022, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.159453, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.085262, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.254449, "worst_return": 0.014471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.386032, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.31167, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.46544, "worst_return": 0.215312, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045444, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.14908, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014476, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010818, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053014, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022597, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027337, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042218, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003926, "active": false 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.107958, "energy": 62.381406, "activity_lines": [ 105.189816, 106.814099, 111.676519, 113.176193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 106.103722, "volume": 4900, "typical_volume": 8845.0, "trend": 113.703025, "fair_value": 98.43236, "relative_strength": -17.377472, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.638956, "energy": 48.569266, "activity_lines": [ 105.935112, 106.094972, 110.856577, 112.678514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 103.356575, "volume": 5200, "typical_volume": 8565.0, "trend": 113.461292, "fair_value": 98.674929, "relative_strength": -18.86252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.218328, "energy": 44.182743, "activity_lines": [ 105.346599, 105.153027, 109.830467, 112.011001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 105.0, "volume": 9200, "typical_volume": 8740.0, "trend": 113.368627, "fair_value": 98.94717, "relative_strength": -17.227546, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.875778, "energy": 39.287181, "activity_lines": [ 105.246107, 104.822274, 109.036931, 111.465111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 105.739998, "volume": 9400, "typical_volume": 8605.0, "trend": 113.245033, "fair_value": 99.236914, "relative_strength": -15.643376, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.863644, "energy": 39.119643, "activity_lines": [ 105.260158, 104.940804, 108.395239, 110.972941 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 103.25, "volume": 5700, "typical_volume": 8495.0, "trend": 112.996171, "fair_value": 99.507241, "relative_strength": -19.627956, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.943269, "energy": 46.05752, "activity_lines": [ 104.468458, 104.76592, 107.586507, 110.3281 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }