{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6eb1aecd-2d87-4364-800a-27a05b2afa97", "symbol": "271050", "name": "KODEX WTI CrudeOil Futures Inverse(H)", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.165, "architecture_energy": 40.582, "architecture_maturity": 76.871, "architecture_confidence": 64.021, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.06, "rotation_up": 11.97, "upward_expansion": 12.56, "deceleration": 62.6, "rotation_down": 63.8, "downward_expansion": 69.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 2142.533333, 2228.690909, 2178.809524, 2292.989247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2200.0, "trend_reference": 2610.566667, "distance_from_trend": -0.157271, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3942.99359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.442048, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -51.090635, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.426336, "excess_performance": -0.656165, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.157271, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207085, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.442048, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064538, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.510906, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.213866, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.426336, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.486358, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6863984, "relative_activity": 0.231442, "balance": 1.486358, "dry_up": 0.295091, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088217, "annualized_volatility": 0.668854, "from_high_reference": -0.511111, "from_low_reference": 0.226994 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2610.566667, "fair_value_reference": 3942.99359, "structural_low": 1793.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.013341, "positive_rate": 0.451613, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.010703, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.21714, "worst_return": -0.356183, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.028745, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.051833, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.177861, "worst_return": -0.432796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.028761, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.096547, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.192352, "worst_return": -0.37373, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 1936.0, "volume": 10208700, "typical_volume": 36851863.0, "trend": 2752.733333, "fair_value": 3972.160256, "relative_strength": -61.622994, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.679397, "energy": 33.104152, "activity_lines": [ 2230.333333, 2250.672727, 2182.709524, 2365.073118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2115.0, "volume": 9315723, "typical_volume": 32306226.5, "trend": 2679.566667, "fair_value": 3957.096154, "relative_strength": -56.46973, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.293137, "energy": 39.27701, "activity_lines": [ 2159.6, 2233.890909, 2175.938095, 2323.929032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2200.0, "volume": 6863984, "typical_volume": 29657478.3, "trend": 2610.566667, "fair_value": 3942.99359, "relative_strength": -51.090635, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.164647, "energy": 40.582183, "activity_lines": [ 2142.533333, 2228.690909, 2178.809524, 2292.989247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }