{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6eb3ad60-aee9-4801-9102-856e0297031a", "symbol": "AIXT", "name": "AIXTRON SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -7.233, "architecture_energy": 34.253, "architecture_maturity": 41.419, "architecture_confidence": 75.256, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.91, "rotation_up": 14.03, "upward_expansion": 45.41, "deceleration": 81.09, "rotation_down": 54.54, "downward_expansion": 41.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.782667, 43.801273, 47.103199, 44.506163 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 40.700001, "trend_reference": 39.29115, "distance_from_trend": 0.035857, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.511283, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.731084, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 19.408967, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.002881, "excess_performance": 0.828634, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035857, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.33818, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.731084, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.553827, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.19409, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.952575, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.002881, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.24744, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 772, "relative_activity": 0.91226, "balance": 1.24744, "dry_up": 0.454357, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141986, "annualized_volatility": 0.587291, "from_high_reference": -0.335185, "from_low_reference": 2.431585 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.29115, "fair_value_reference": 23.511283, "structural_low": 20.51018, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.046069, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.038729, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.138807, "worst_return": -0.201719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.081454, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.056166, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.342264, "worst_return": -0.342334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.004804, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.053037, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.713208, "worst_return": -0.301433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06313, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072355, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.693336, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03853, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 33.908268, "volume": 320, "typical_volume": 105.5, "trend": 28.473455, "fair_value": 21.038024, "relative_strength": 24.618231, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.83786, "energy": 87.664554, 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"fair_value": 23.448582, "relative_strength": 23.724464, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.991468, "energy": 32.098011, "activity_lines": [ 42.613333, 47.729091, 48.393672, 44.386493 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.77, "volume": 471, "typical_volume": 888.0, "trend": 38.613835, "fair_value": 23.470044, "relative_strength": 15.562267, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -16.645708, "energy": 38.825508, "activity_lines": [ 40.224667, 45.353818, 47.621922, 44.371571 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.700001, "volume": 772, "typical_volume": 846.25, "trend": 39.29115, "fair_value": 23.511283, "relative_strength": 19.408967, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.232759, "energy": 34.252552, "activity_lines": [ 39.782667, 43.801273, 47.103199, 44.506163 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }