{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6eb75768-1842-40bf-87a2-978c993dca60", "symbol": "BRIN-B", "name": "Brinova Fastigheter AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.091, "architecture_energy": 60.606, "architecture_maturity": 8.167, "architecture_confidence": 85.771, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.82, "rotation_up": 12.94, "upward_expansion": 14.11, "deceleration": 35.93, "rotation_down": 68.63, "downward_expansion": 85.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.846667, 13.092727, 13.234762, 13.367634 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.65, "trend_reference": 13.706667, "distance_from_trend": -0.077091, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.516667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.277831, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.569632, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.148148, "excess_performance": -0.209643, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077091, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058285, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.277831, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023907, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.235696, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005845, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.148148, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.369106, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 331494, "relative_activity": 2.158222, "balance": 0.369106, "dry_up": 1.387493, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053208, "annualized_volatility": 0.270594, "from_high_reference": -0.264535, "from_low_reference": 0.020161 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.706667, "fair_value_reference": 17.516667, "structural_low": 12.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.022044, "positive_rate": 0.382353, "directional_follow_through": 0.617647, "median_excess_return": -0.028521, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.164062, "worst_return": -0.313056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.074468, "positive_rate": 0.090909, "directional_follow_through": 0.909091, "median_excess_return": -0.113766, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.350553, "worst_return": -0.205279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.104172, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.209694, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.402214, "worst_return": -0.366093, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.095455, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.181452, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020356, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.152062, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.068966, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", 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"close": 12.8, "volume": 107415, "typical_volume": 148449.65, "trend": 13.915, "fair_value": 17.571795, "relative_strength": -21.524884, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.003091, "energy": 29.717591, "activity_lines": [ 13.213333, 13.303636, 13.339286, 13.50828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.9, "volume": 206337, "typical_volume": 148419.8, "trend": 13.815, "fair_value": 17.542628, "relative_strength": -21.310072, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.313053, "energy": 44.190477, "activity_lines": [ 13.05, 13.217273, 13.297143, 13.442796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.65, "volume": 331494, "typical_volume": 153595.9, "trend": 13.706667, "fair_value": 17.516667, "relative_strength": -23.569632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.091084, "energy": 60.605672, "activity_lines": [ 12.846667, 13.092727, 13.234762, 13.367634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }