{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ebe881c-b1fa-4dda-b431-9b6af537674c", "symbol": "ASB", "name": "Austal Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.473, "architecture_energy": 52.237, "architecture_maturity": 73.607, "architecture_confidence": 92.766, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.0, "rotation_up": 20.61, "upward_expansion": 7.45, "deceleration": 54.52, "rotation_down": 56.82, "downward_expansion": 78.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.719333, 3.831818, 3.970524, 4.215247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.84, "trend_reference": 4.764667, "distance_from_trend": -0.194067, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.979554, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.035068, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.304277, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.329843, "excess_performance": -0.393549, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.194067, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161986, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.035068, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114926, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.363043, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029309, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.329843, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.482985, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6029685, "relative_activity": 0.936032, "balance": 0.482985, "dry_up": 1.210664, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094551, "annualized_volatility": 0.649697, "from_high_reference": -0.564626, "from_low_reference": 0.153153 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.764667, "fair_value_reference": 3.979554, "structural_low": 3.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.001978, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.016373, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.10574, "worst_return": -0.25873, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.011122, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024929, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.5731, "worst_return": -0.390476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.309738, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.225048, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.31831, "worst_return": -0.022831, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049107, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047138, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071942, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }