{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ec48bb7-9044-4ade-b056-b277cdfede0e", "symbol": "XRSM", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI USA Screened UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.038, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.597, "architecture_energy": 66.93, "architecture_maturity": 88.747, "architecture_confidence": 58.662, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.83, "rotation_up": 53.0, "upward_expansion": 82.92, "deceleration": 71.45, "rotation_down": 29.27, "downward_expansion": 11.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.2956, 57.084873, 56.246653, 54.887105 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 58.609001, "trend_reference": 53.292467, "distance_from_trend": 0.099761, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.228333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.295847, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.904777, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.166325, "excess_performance": -0.004567, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.099761, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039662, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.295847, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036259, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029048, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006313, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.166325, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.53289, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62227, "relative_activity": 3.354555, "balance": 0.53289, "dry_up": 3.224798, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018809, "annualized_volatility": 0.131362, "from_high_reference": -0.002739, "from_low_reference": 0.236086 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.292467, "fair_value_reference": 45.228333, "structural_low": 47.679001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.013554, "positive_rate": 0.621622, "directional_follow_through": 0.621622, "median_excess_return": -0.003489, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.063418, "worst_return": -0.124396, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.045227, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.009369, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.126669, "worst_return": -0.071855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.077118, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.009487, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.193501, "worst_return": -0.089861, "sufficient": true }, { 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52.047733, "fair_value": 44.332141, "relative_strength": -3.030301, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.343502, "energy": 66.244103, "activity_lines": [ 56.414934, 56.035346, 54.132376, 53.089987 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 57.139, "volume": 16148, "typical_volume": 8552.75, "trend": 52.238566, "fair_value": 44.483551, "relative_strength": -4.210187, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.05804, "energy": 69.252687, "activity_lines": [ 56.650267, 56.349218, 54.562857, 53.418456 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 57.644001, "volume": 7109, "typical_volume": 8645.2, "trend": 52.474733, "fair_value": 44.638532, "relative_strength": -2.903006, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.81383, "energy": 71.377135, "activity_lines": [ 57.015201, 56.677655, 55.005805, 53.767194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 56.889, "volume": 56694, "typical_volume": 10986.3, "trend": 52.681533, "fair_value": 44.785103, "relative_strength": -2.725633, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.737497, "energy": 65.125638, "activity_lines": [ 57.053467, 56.783255, 55.341686, 54.051985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.848999, "volume": 69553, "typical_volume": 13822.1, "trend": 52.8777, "fair_value": 44.927788, "relative_strength": -2.561824, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.448948, "energy": 64.559304, "activity_lines": [ 57.014067, 56.838564, 55.640662, 54.320854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.105, "volume": 50806, "typical_volume": 15546.85, "trend": 53.0594, "fair_value": 45.068814, "relative_strength": -4.37377, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.692348, "energy": 58.740751, "activity_lines": [ 56.734333, 56.733982, 55.839195, 54.529067 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.609001, "volume": 62227, "typical_volume": 18550.0, "trend": 53.292467, "fair_value": 45.228333, "relative_strength": -2.904777, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.596777, "energy": 66.930362, "activity_lines": [ 57.2956, 57.084873, 56.246653, 54.887105 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }