{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ecd6835-6ed6-4cde-94f5-c5c900e30ef2", "symbol": "ROKU", "name": "Roku Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.617, "architecture_energy": 78.175, "architecture_maturity": 53.576, "architecture_confidence": 90.733, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 65.72, "upward_expansion": 92.31, "deceleration": 46.26, "rotation_down": 23.3, "downward_expansion": 16.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 146.736667, 143.720727, 136.560857, 127.83729 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 153.11, "trend_reference": 117.084667, "distance_from_trend": 0.307686, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 85.790481, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.784697, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 22.954588, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.78346, "excess_performance": 0.596006, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.307686, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116496, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.784697, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.167853, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.229546, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101135, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.78346, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.67717, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17893477, "relative_activity": 0.99094, "balance": 0.67717, "dry_up": 0.771731, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058917, "annualized_volatility": 0.433908, "from_high_reference": -0.002801, "from_low_reference": 0.949701 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 117.084667, "fair_value_reference": 85.790481, "structural_low": 78.53, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.033233, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": -0.047451, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.305442, "worst_return": -0.315837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.020304, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013216, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.377082, "worst_return": -0.320763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.120943, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.030187, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.523214, "worst_return": -0.402086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.404524, "energy": 73.758088, "activity_lines": [ 141.404667, 138.166727, 129.638476, 121.614989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 141.97, "volume": 9583085, "typical_volume": 17761672.75, "trend": 114.477, "fair_value": 84.941058, "relative_strength": 22.279217, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.601728, "energy": 64.63439, "activity_lines": [ 141.993333, 139.494182, 131.711905, 123.453011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 145.01, "volume": 14834431, "typical_volume": 17756910.5, "trend": 115.686667, "fair_value": 85.317083, "relative_strength": 23.29496, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.340868, "energy": 68.274092, "activity_lines": [ 143.335333, 141.048, 133.877714, 125.422882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 153.11, "volume": 17893477, "typical_volume": 18057067.7, "trend": 117.084667, "fair_value": 85.790481, "relative_strength": 22.954588, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.617071, "energy": 78.175298, "activity_lines": [ 146.736667, 143.720727, 136.560857, 127.83729 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }