{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ece9f8b-5d1e-49f6-83e2-9bd20e8aa737", "symbol": "WLMM4", "name": "WLM Participa\u00e7\u00f5es e Com\u00e9rcio de M\u00e1quinas e Ve\u00edculos S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.802, "architecture_energy": 90.449, "architecture_maturity": 31.89, "architecture_confidence": 84.435, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.04, "rotation_up": 8.24, "upward_expansion": 21.9, "deceleration": 37.03, "rotation_down": 79.92, "downward_expansion": 95.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.909333, 17.855653, 18.594449, 19.488504 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.5, "trend_reference": 20.589701, "distance_from_trend": -0.198628, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.326442, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.321726, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.818555, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.326531, "excess_performance": -0.269482, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.198628, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007832, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.321726, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181587, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.198186, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035005, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.326531, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.154967, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7800, "relative_activity": 1.234177, "balance": 0.154967, "dry_up": 2.286392, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064352, "annualized_volatility": 0.38514, "from_high_reference": -0.408602, "from_low_reference": 0.018518 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.589701, "fair_value_reference": 24.326442, "structural_low": 16.200001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.025633, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.003871, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.491917, "worst_return": -0.184964, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.01655, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.4525, "worst_return": -0.128076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.014971, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.077241, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.381479, "worst_return": -0.201452, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.081639, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.218011, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063743, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.063034, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089369, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.208087, "active": 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31.54814, "activity_lines": [ 19.538061, 19.308972, 19.943712, 20.611582 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 20.1, "volume": 3400, "typical_volume": 5745.0, "trend": 21.001253, "fair_value": 24.45275, "relative_strength": -8.398356, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.202833, "energy": 30.48277, "activity_lines": [ 19.828667, 19.432612, 19.862326, 20.555788 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.959999, "volume": 32000, "typical_volume": 6070.0, "trend": 20.925258, "fair_value": 24.452373, "relative_strength": -20.159971, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.18135, "energy": 49.974815, "activity_lines": [ 18.948, 18.993084, 19.516464, 20.295062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.92, "volume": 7300, "typical_volume": 6005.0, "trend": 20.846684, "fair_value": 24.443183, "relative_strength": -19.763758, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.027615, "energy": 77.705455, "activity_lines": [ 18.152, 18.619353, 19.201887, 20.036658 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.59, "volume": 10700, "typical_volume": 6360.0, "trend": 20.739701, "fair_value": 24.394176, "relative_strength": -22.406415, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.237601, "energy": 90.717831, "activity_lines": [ 17.450666, 18.223604, 18.887073, 19.762034 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.5, "volume": 7800, "typical_volume": 6320.0, "trend": 20.589701, "fair_value": 24.326442, "relative_strength": -19.818555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.802227, "energy": 90.449219, "activity_lines": [ 16.909333, 17.855653, 18.594449, 19.488504 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }