{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ed0e80a-831e-4342-a1e6-7f6c0d217aee", "symbol": "CMSE", "name": "iShares Diversified Commodity Swap UCITS ETF (DE)", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.675, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.541, "architecture_energy": 36.782, "architecture_maturity": 32.062, "architecture_confidence": 56.116, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.88, "rotation_up": 65.0, "upward_expansion": 67.94, "deceleration": 63.11, "rotation_down": 9.52, "downward_expansion": 11.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.599668, 33.061819, 33.221574, 33.025678 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 33.365002, "trend_reference": 32.31932, "distance_from_trend": 0.032355, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.253793, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.180903, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.949166, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.153042, "excess_performance": 0.099731, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032355, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063501, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.180903, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063462, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.049492, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162939, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.153042, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.684766, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26197, "relative_activity": 0.777598, "balance": 0.684766, "dry_up": 0.661479, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031943, "annualized_volatility": 0.214977, "from_high_reference": -0.066713, "from_low_reference": 0.377012 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.31932, "fair_value_reference": 28.253793, "structural_low": 28.1199, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.039994, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.04977, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.039994, "worst_return": 0.039994, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.494287, "energy": 18.69582, "activity_lines": [ 32.383, 32.584909, 33.071995, 32.650594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.580002, "volume": 28936, "typical_volume": 40391.2, "trend": 31.909873, "fair_value": 28.133823, "relative_strength": 14.012629, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.92407, "energy": 28.117375, "activity_lines": [ 33.191001, 32.865, 33.201457, 32.838645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.580002, "volume": 18142, "typical_volume": 35149.5, "trend": 32.13612, "fair_value": 28.195711, "relative_strength": 8.545733, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.640017, "energy": 33.128595, "activity_lines": [ 33.502335, 32.972092, 33.220918, 32.946395 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.365002, "volume": 26197, "typical_volume": 33689.65, "trend": 32.31932, "fair_value": 28.253793, "relative_strength": 4.949166, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.541449, "energy": 36.781903, "activity_lines": [ 33.599668, 33.061819, 33.221574, 33.025678 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }