{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ed5d056-44e6-45da-a7f9-2eca74715a24", "symbol": "CMPX", "name": "Compass Therapeutics Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "model_version": "ta-0.1.0", "as_of_week": "2026-07-31", "benchmark": "SPY", "history_weeks": 278, "chart_window_weeks": 156, "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "stage_color": "red", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "stage_age_weeks": 14, "hard_stage_exit": false, "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "transition_score": 29.184, "is_transition_watch": false, "confidence": 96.0, "composite_score": 76.776, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_color": "red", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.451, "architecture_energy": 88.852, "architecture_maturity": 69.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.772, "architecture_age_weeks": 12, "is_reacceleration_watch": false, "architecture": { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.451, "energy": 88.852, "maturity": 69.0, "confidence": 92.772, "confirmation": 84.471, "age_weeks": 12, "candidate": null, "candidate_weeks": 0, "hard_reversal": false, "reacceleration_watch": false, "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Activity Lines are bearishly ordered below the 30-week Trend Line, their slopes are negative and price is accepted below the fan. Repair requires contraction and an upward fast/slow rotation\u2014not merely one strong week." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.3, "rotation_up": 29.99, "upward_expansion": 21.99, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 54.0, "downward_expansion": 92.99 }, "activity_lines": { "5": 2.060667, "10": 2.092545, "20": 2.407, "30": 3.085548 }, "activity_slopes": { "5": -0.227523, "10": -0.021583, "20": -1.959387, "30": -2.062789 }, "bullish_order": 0.0, "bearish_order": 1.0, "fan_width_atr": 3.801924, "fan_width_change_4": 1.753586, "fan_width_percentile": 1.0, "fast_slow_gap_atr": -2.484216, "fast_slow_gap_change_4": 1.886535, "price_acceptance": -0.5, "current_fan_distance_atr": -0.558916, "accepted_above": 0.0, "accepted_below": 0.5, "crossing_density": 0.25 }, "interpretation": { "headline": "The primary weekly trend is declining.", "body": "Price below a falling 30-week average with weak relative performance defines the defensive state. Bottom-fishing evidence is kept separate from a confirmed Stage 1 repair.", "phase": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "Stage 4 decline intact", "transition_context": "The evidence score for the next canonical transition is 29/100." }, "latest_close": 1.91, "sma_30": 3.986, "distance_from_sma_30": -0.520823, "sma_30_slope": -0.191426, "fair_value": 2.608316, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.267727, "fair_value_gap_change_13": 0.001764, "is_fair_value_repair": false, "mansfield_rs": -57.325065, "mansfield_rs_change_13": -0.347434, "range_position_52": 0.056926, "returns": { "13": -0.02551, "26": -0.701563, "52": -0.352542 }, "relative_returns": { "26": -0.786883, "52": -0.567377 }, "stage_scores": { "1": 60.57, "2": 0.0, "3": 9.43, "4": 100.0 }, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs 30-week average", "positive": false, "value": -0.520823, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "30-week slope", "positive": false, "value": -0.191426, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.267727, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "13-week Fair Value gap", "positive": true, "value": 0.001764, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Mansfield RS vs SPY", "positive": false, "value": -0.573251, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "13-week RS change", "positive": false, "value": -0.003474, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "26-week price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.701563, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "13-week volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.025026, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14279488, "ratio_20": 0.497906, "up_down_ratio_13": 1.025026, "dry_up_ratio": 0.412003, "accumulation_weeks": 0, "distribution_weeks": 1 }, "base": { "high_26": 6.88, "low_26": 1.61, "depth": 0.765988, "compression": 0.094877, "breakout_distance": -0.722384 }, "risk": { "atr_percent": 0.141136, "annualized_volatility": 1.411491, "drawdown_from_52_high": -0.722384, "advance_from_52_low": 0.186335 }, "levels": { 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14279488, "sma_30": 3.986, "fair_value_history": 2.608316, "mansfield_rs": -57.325065, "stage": 4, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.450928, "architecture_energy": 88.851633, "activity_5": 2.060667, "activity_10": 2.092545, "activity_20": 2.407, "activity_30": 3.085548 } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed weekly OHLCV", "trend": "30-week simple moving average; slope compares the current value with ten completed weeks earlier", "fair_value": "current horizontal Fair Value is the arithmetic mean of up to 156 completed weekly closes; Stage 1 repair measures whether price is below and rising toward that anchor", "relative_strength": "Mansfield-style relative performance line: ticker/SPY divided by its trailing 52-week mean, minus one", "classification": "Trend Architecture uses the Activity Line position as a direction gate, then classifies ordering, four-week slopes, ATR-normalized fan width, fast/slow rotation and six-week price acceptance. Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.", "architecture_boundary": "The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.", "admissibility": "Stage 2 cannot persist when price is more than 5% below the 30-week average or 8% below current Fair Value, the ten-week average slope is below -2%, Mansfield RS is below -8, or the 26-week return is below -15%. Stage 4 requires price no more than 5% above the average, RS no higher than +8, and at least one deterioration test: slope at or below +1.5%, 13-week return at or below -10%, or 26-week return at or below -12%. These are exit boundaries, not entry signals.", "confidence": "separation between the leading and runner-up stage evidence scores; not forecast probability" }, "historical_outcomes": [ { "weeks": 4, "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.035695, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.068538, "stage_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.884058, "worst_return": -0.389313, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 13, "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.02551, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.064758, "stage_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.985482, "worst_return": -0.362721, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 26, "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.003865, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.135812, "stage_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.73913, "worst_return": -0.319588, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 52, "sample_count": 3, 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"2025-04-18", "weeks": 2, "return": 0.032448 }, { "stage": 3, "name": "Distribution", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "weeks": 7, "return": 0.28866 }, { "stage": 2, "name": "Advancing", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "weeks": 8, "return": 0.224066 }, { "stage": 1, "name": "Basing", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "weeks": 2, "return": 0.1 }, { "stage": 2, "name": "Advancing", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-04-24", "weeks": 36, "return": 0.665563 }, { "stage": 4, "name": "Declining", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-31", "weeks": 14, "return": -0.02551, "active": true } ], "architecture_outcomes": [ { "weeks": 4, "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.027027, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.062067, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.311927, "worst_return": -0.148472, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 13, "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.092784, "positive_rate": 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