{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ed706b3-d1ed-41e5-8c04-e9e1e402a22a", "symbol": "ALOKINDS", "name": "Alok Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.442, "architecture_energy": 66.18, "architecture_maturity": 90.555, "architecture_confidence": 90.108, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.93, "rotation_up": 12.71, "upward_expansion": 14.37, "deceleration": 37.99, "rotation_down": 69.59, "downward_expansion": 90.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.064, 12.344909, 12.66481, 12.91671 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.97, "trend_reference": 13.403333, "distance_from_trend": -0.106939, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.095, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.404329, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.515775, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.251407, "excess_performance": -0.207698, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106939, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091361, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.404329, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098225, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.195158, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065067, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.251407, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.627326, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9855693, "relative_activity": 0.419781, "balance": 0.627326, "dry_up": 0.693557, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065163, "annualized_volatility": 0.345246, "from_high_reference": -0.381075, "from_low_reference": 0.077408 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.403333, "fair_value_reference": 20.095, "structural_low": 11.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.037825, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.606061, "median_excess_return": -0.031694, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.206089, "worst_return": -0.173145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.13318, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.110201, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.291563, "worst_return": -0.234146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.156738, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.125021, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.069479, "worst_return": -0.310817, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.07, "volume": 20570283, "typical_volume": 24872019.35, "trend": 13.677333, "fair_value": 20.141859, "relative_strength": -17.483199, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.15071, "energy": 49.384708, "activity_lines": [ 12.433333, 12.572545, 12.855905, 13.130903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.92, "volume": 11579001, "typical_volume": 24355065.75, "trend": 13.532667, "fair_value": 20.120192, "relative_strength": -19.886017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.367232, "energy": 63.595901, "activity_lines": [ 12.21, 12.450727, 12.755333, 13.017527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.97, "volume": 9855693, "typical_volume": 23478177.8, "trend": 13.403333, "fair_value": 20.095, "relative_strength": -19.515775, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.44247, "energy": 66.179752, "activity_lines": [ 12.064, 12.344909, 12.66481, 12.91671 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }