{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ed73245-bc7b-4aa4-990b-b1188272d3cb", "symbol": "002863", "name": "Zhejiang Jinfei Kaida Wheel Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.532, "architecture_energy": 57.466, "architecture_maturity": 62.308, "architecture_confidence": 95.264, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 24.75, "upward_expansion": 10.04, "deceleration": 60.31, "rotation_down": 55.96, "downward_expansion": 83.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.303333, 4.359129, 4.681244, 4.939782 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.43, "trend_reference": 5.281725, "distance_from_trend": -0.161259, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.048329, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.122482, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.685408, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.257956, "excess_performance": -0.265356, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.161259, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073523, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.122482, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230851, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.206854, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053416, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.257956, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.34942, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71070939, "relative_activity": 1.519549, "balance": 0.34942, "dry_up": 1.270401, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078036, "annualized_volatility": 0.275506, "from_high_reference": -0.338806, "from_low_reference": 0.1075 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.281725, "fair_value_reference": 5.048329, "structural_low": 4.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.018097, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.000572, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.155312, "worst_return": -0.104819, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.079439, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.049326, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.417569, "worst_return": -0.190073, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.105441, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.058776, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.30192, "worst_return": -0.125733, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"down", "direction": -75.720375, "energy": 86.914421, "activity_lines": [ 4.345253, 4.549014, 4.908221, 5.15246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.08, "volume": 61754798, "typical_volume": 46750237.85, "trend": 5.381058, "fair_value": 5.069257, "relative_strength": -25.267192, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.555857, "energy": 76.448281, "activity_lines": [ 4.241322, 4.425771, 4.804594, 5.064994 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.34, "volume": 47130706, "typical_volume": 46211610.4, "trend": 5.329725, "fair_value": 5.057773, "relative_strength": -18.758611, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.556648, "energy": 64.34843, "activity_lines": [ 4.258667, 4.375019, 4.734919, 4.997829 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.43, "volume": 71070939, "typical_volume": 46771083.9, "trend": 5.281725, "fair_value": 5.048329, "relative_strength": -20.685408, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.532469, "energy": 57.466053, "activity_lines": [ 4.303333, 4.359129, 4.681244, 4.939782 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }