{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "6ede6b82-9772-4cf2-8717-1004c20cf76a",
    "symbol": "GES",
    "name": "Genesis Resources Limited",
    "exchange": "ASX",
    "country": "AU",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^AXJO",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -63.865,
    "architecture_energy": 63.266,
    "architecture_maturity": 75.148,
    "architecture_confidence": 94.093,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 15.03,
        "rotation_up": 29.3,
        "upward_expansion": 12.0,
        "deceleration": 60.88,
        "rotation_down": 50.76,
        "downward_expansion": 83.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.0056,
        0.005618,
        0.006062,
        0.006622
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 0.006,
    "trend_reference": 0.007067,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.150943,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 0.00625,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.04,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -20.704231,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.2,
    "excess_performance": 0.136294,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.150943,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.031963,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.04,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.176316,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.207042,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.186301,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.2,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.273696,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 33,
      "relative_activity": 0.000175,
      "balance": 0.273696,
      "dry_up": 2.158094,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.064103,
      "annualized_volatility": 1.347759,
      "from_high_reference": -0.571429,
      "from_low_reference": 0.2
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.007067,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.00625,
      "structural_low": 0.005,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 29,
        "median_return": 0.0,
        "positive_rate": 0.413793,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.206897,
        "median_excess_return": 0.047912,
        "regime_survival": 0.689655,
        "best_return": 1.0,
        "worst_return": -0.333333,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.166667,
        "positive_rate": 0.583333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.166667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.180406,
        "regime_survival": 0.416667,
        "best_return": 0.8,
        "worst_return": -0.5,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.0,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": -0.056008,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.666667,
        "worst_return": -0.5,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.25,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.268695,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.8,
        "worst_return": -0.333333,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.5,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.2,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-08-15",
        "end": "2025-09-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.5,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.333333,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.285714,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.166667,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-02-06",
        "end": "2026-02-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.1,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-04-17",
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        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-05-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.125,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "active": true
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    ],
    "chart_path": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "volume": 45000,
        "typical_volume": 429638.4,
        "trend": 0.007467,
        "fair_value": 0.00616,
        "relative_strength": 0.127397,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "energy": 35.360768,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 416748.95,
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        "energy": 50.378711,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 111112,
        "typical_volume": 416678.95,
        "trend": 0.0073,
        "fair_value": 0.006192,
        "relative_strength": -14.227228,
        "stage": 4,
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        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 399108.15,
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        "stage": 4,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "energy": 77.818722,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 388051.25,
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        "relative_strength": -16.156418,
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        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -45.578349,
        "energy": 80.729234,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 0.006,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 228350.9,
        "trend": 0.0072,
        "fair_value": 0.006218,
        "relative_strength": -17.106473,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 88.038092,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 260698,
        "typical_volume": 146463.55,
        "trend": 0.0072,
        "fair_value": 0.006218,
        "relative_strength": -30.596452,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -95.111498,
        "energy": 97.509342,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.005667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 0.005,
        "volume": 1020005,
        "typical_volume": 193542.1,
        "trend": 0.007167,
        "fair_value": 0.006224,
        "relative_strength": -30.518892,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -84.165398,
        "energy": 90.640149,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.0054,
          0.005764,
          0.006443,
          0.006905
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.005,
        "volume": 507333,
        "typical_volume": 196578.75,
        "trend": 0.007133,
        "fair_value": 0.006231,
        "relative_strength": -30.314273,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -76.864445,
        "energy": 70.460313,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.0052,
          0.005564,
          0.006233,
          0.006766
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.006,
        "volume": 101763,
        "typical_volume": 201007.7,
        "trend": 0.0071,
        "fair_value": 0.006244,
        "relative_strength": -18.235439,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -66.468605,
        "energy": 66.740688,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.0054,
          0.005582,
          0.006138,
          0.006692
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.006,
        "volume": 33,
        "typical_volume": 188723.7,
        "trend": 0.007067,
        "fair_value": 0.00625,
        "relative_strength": -20.704231,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -63.865067,
        "energy": 63.265775,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.0056,
          0.005618,
          0.006062,
          0.006622
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}