{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ee38181-2471-40cf-ad90-22d5c4d34a77", "symbol": "BTCA", "name": "15 FiCAS Active Crypto ETP", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -94.248, "architecture_energy": 77.611, "architecture_maturity": 88.993, "architecture_confidence": 76.908, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.27, "rotation_up": 20.87, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 57.75, "rotation_down": 74.78, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 153.572001, 154.152002, 155.47143, 155.744174 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 152.339996, "trend_reference": 158.940001, "distance_from_trend": -0.041525, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 209.518205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.272903, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.967295, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.026688, "excess_performance": -0.056195, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041525, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099662, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.272903, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043121, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.309673, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008225, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.026688, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": null, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005191, "annualized_volatility": 0.181932, "from_high_reference": -0.50953, "from_low_reference": 0.093297 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 158.940001, "fair_value_reference": 209.518205, "structural_low": 139.339996, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.007105, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.010633, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.296536, "worst_return": -0.310947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.086079, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.066989, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.573396, "worst_return": -0.30247, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.081201, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.059303, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.520658, "worst_return": -0.403595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"down", "direction": -71.132189, "energy": 89.712337, "activity_lines": [ 154.946669, 155.455275, 156.212383, 157.422496 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 154.600006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6.5, "trend": 162.131334, "fair_value": 209.098077, "relative_strength": -31.21853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.410501, "energy": 89.91154, "activity_lines": [ 154.838671, 155.123276, 156.049145, 156.851701 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 153.360001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6.05, "trend": 160.735334, "fair_value": 209.311539, "relative_strength": -30.701763, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -92.392942, "energy": 89.939065, "activity_lines": [ 154.316004, 154.668367, 155.791907, 156.285808 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 152.339996, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4.7, "trend": 158.940001, "fair_value": 209.518205, "relative_strength": -30.967295, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.247558, "energy": 77.61098, "activity_lines": [ 153.572001, 154.152002, 155.47143, 155.744174 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }