{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ee90b16-1b4e-42c0-85b5-59560f495a83", "symbol": "DSNO", "name": "Desenio Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 81.999, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.322, "architecture_energy": 29.364, "architecture_maturity": 44.434, "architecture_confidence": 51.333, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.97, "rotation_up": 61.93, "upward_expansion": 61.21, "deceleration": 59.14, "rotation_down": 10.37, "downward_expansion": 18.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.094873, 0.088724, 0.090862, 0.091051 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.1035, "trend_reference": 0.087407, "distance_from_trend": 0.18412, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.265841, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.61067, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.814026, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.848214, "excess_performance": 0.78672, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.18412, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050098, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.61067, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054707, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01814, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033122, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.848214, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.245756, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 756918, "relative_activity": 0.350502, "balance": 3.245756, "dry_up": 2.89249, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.146637, "annualized_volatility": 0.91391, "from_high_reference": -0.31, "from_low_reference": 1.464286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.087407, "fair_value_reference": 0.265841, "structural_low": 0.042, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.151786, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.158245, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.46789, "worst_return": -0.419495, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.370179, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.351663, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.143885, "worst_return": -0.528463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.471536, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.500962, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.233813, "worst_return": -0.670304, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.756275, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.820416, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.705036, "worst_return": -0.807514, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-03-10", "end": "2023-03-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.327083, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-04-07", "end": "2023-08-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.034375, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.160342, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.721212, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.304545, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.532374, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.052817, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.410072, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.272265, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.185345, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.182906, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.163717, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.259446, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.125, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.236, "volume": 365255, "typical_volume": 990613.2, "trend": 1.4509, "fair_value": 22.548438, "relative_strength": -33.882389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.07848, 0.081473, 0.089549, 0.088539 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.1, "volume": 6074268, "typical_volume": 3203584.95, "trend": 0.085637, "fair_value": 0.281024, "relative_strength": -3.720148, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.648206, "energy": 10.863787, "activity_lines": [ 0.085707, 0.084149, 0.090135, 0.08953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.092, "volume": 2396151, "typical_volume": 2311222.05, "trend": 0.08629, "fair_value": 0.273742, "relative_strength": -11.675894, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.442919, "energy": 6.538412, "activity_lines": [ 0.08892, 0.085407, 0.089916, 0.089941 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1035, "volume": 756918, "typical_volume": 2159528.25, "trend": 0.087407, "fair_value": 0.265841, "relative_strength": -1.814026, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.322318, "energy": 29.363849, "activity_lines": [ 0.094873, 0.088724, 0.090862, 0.091051 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }