{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6eefe6ab-8bd2-4a28-8b74-6c3d8b892daf", "symbol": "QQEQ-F", "name": "Invesco NASDAQ 100 Equal Weight Index ETF Hedged", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.92, "architecture_energy": 52.747, "architecture_maturity": 64.862, "architecture_confidence": 65.771, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.43, "rotation_up": 46.12, "upward_expansion": 70.33, "deceleration": 82.67, "rotation_down": 27.99, "downward_expansion": 27.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.538, 29.699683, 29.236293, 28.420323 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 30.18, "trend_reference": 27.479409, "distance_from_trend": 0.098277, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.6271, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.277347, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.783518, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.197539, "excess_performance": 0.077118, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098277, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052424, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.277347, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057471, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007835, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040067, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.197539, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.769124, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102, "relative_activity": 0.304478, "balance": 0.769124, "dry_up": 0.179104, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017774, "annualized_volatility": 0.15237, "from_high_reference": -0.005954, "from_low_reference": 0.236957 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.479409, "fair_value_reference": 23.6271, "structural_low": 24.4, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.011245, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017033, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.050377, "worst_return": -0.018389, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.037969, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.005571, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.127749, "worst_return": -0.090413, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.06522, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.032891, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.186575, "worst_return": 0.055329, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.170373, 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"2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059905, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003187, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030522, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.018687, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027767, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002738, "active": false }, { "regime": 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27.296923, 26.560287, 26.120013, 26.021291 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 28.583065, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 992.15, "trend": 25.990537, "fair_value": 22.866156, "relative_strength": -0.95963, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.713403, "energy": 97.404514, "activity_lines": [ 27.817692, 27.026299, 26.368468, 26.194235 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 29.780001, "volume": 704, "typical_volume": 992.25, "trend": 26.110594, "fair_value": 22.942014, "relative_strength": 2.425239, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 97.586152, "energy": 98.989389, "activity_lines": [ 28.575236, 27.64537, 26.717526, 26.438717 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 30.360767, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 942.25, "trend": 26.274867, "fair_value": 23.021595, "relative_strength": 5.589437, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", 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588.75, "trend": 27.154392, "fair_value": 23.447854, "relative_strength": 2.885802, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.164184, "energy": 67.819373, "activity_lines": [ 30.006308, 29.950835, 28.840204, 28.023478 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.860001, "volume": 138, "typical_volume": 500.45, "trend": 27.245772, "fair_value": 23.502817, "relative_strength": -1.237797, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.365515, "energy": 58.321123, "activity_lines": [ 29.63012, 29.802443, 28.946783, 28.133517 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.860001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 432.6, "trend": 27.348745, "fair_value": 23.559725, "relative_strength": -0.602763, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.816402, "energy": 45.707768, "activity_lines": [ 29.340667, 29.633581, 29.037795, 28.237661 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.18, "volume": 102, "typical_volume": 335.0, "trend": 27.479409, "fair_value": 23.6271, "relative_strength": 0.783518, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.919876, "energy": 52.74702, "activity_lines": [ 29.538, 29.699683, 29.236293, 28.420323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }