{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ef0a26b-cb99-400a-aad8-75880e1ec1cf", "symbol": "300096", "name": "YLZ Information Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.589, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.831, "architecture_energy": 38.555, "architecture_maturity": 3.027, "architecture_confidence": 59.038, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.86, "rotation_up": 17.23, "upward_expansion": 22.48, "deceleration": 52.02, "rotation_down": 61.56, "downward_expansion": 45.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.164, 8.524545, 8.770429, 8.722731 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.43, "trend_reference": 8.539667, "distance_from_trend": -0.012842, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.372244, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.569177, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.784446, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.038177, "excess_performance": 0.030778, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012842, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052201, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.569177, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.347328, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.057844, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188343, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.038177, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.570017, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13855587, "relative_activity": 0.647972, "balance": 0.570017, "dry_up": 0.643889, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09791, "annualized_volatility": 0.486264, "from_high_reference": -0.169458, "from_low_reference": 1.218421 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.539667, "fair_value_reference": 5.372244, "structural_low": 7.58, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.042857, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.070264, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.574627, "worst_return": -0.105081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.032092, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.013884, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.818408, "worst_return": -0.082949, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.05253, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.136515, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.047264, "worst_return": -0.470046, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.449266, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.296505, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.225515, "worst_return": -0.673016, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.249071, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012232, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.141667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.23301, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.162011, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019324, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049528, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035088, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.291519, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", 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"activity_lines": [ 8.924667, 8.949455, 9.000095, 8.806301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.86, "volume": 16232713, "typical_volume": 23955853.55, "trend": 8.492667, "fair_value": 5.345321, "relative_strength": 4.07869, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.006733, "energy": 21.900689, "activity_lines": [ 8.482667, 8.746, 8.903667, 8.765892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.9, "volume": 9602600, "typical_volume": 22603532.75, "trend": 8.506333, "fair_value": 5.356218, "relative_strength": 5.300314, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.217098, "energy": 38.114277, "activity_lines": [ 8.183333, 8.574909, 8.810476, 8.727656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.43, "volume": 13855587, "typical_volume": 21382997.1, "trend": 8.539667, "fair_value": 5.372244, "relative_strength": 5.784446, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.831477, "energy": 38.554656, "activity_lines": [ 8.164, 8.524545, 8.770429, 8.722731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }