{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ef3a0cf-be9f-457a-ad42-e0da4ac6dd94", "symbol": "CHPS", "name": "XTRACKERS SEMICONDUCTOR SELECT EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.692, "architecture_energy": 23.024, "architecture_maturity": 74.703, "architecture_confidence": 91.647, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.06, "rotation_up": 18.13, "upward_expansion": 52.41, "deceleration": 93.97, "rotation_down": 37.42, "downward_expansion": 20.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 83.34474, 87.315978, 86.377097, 80.458834 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 85.037, "trend_reference": 72.601447, "distance_from_trend": 0.171285, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.703485, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.141802, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 27.097488, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.512673, "excess_performance": 0.32522, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.171285, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.250074, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.141802, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.271944, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.270975, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.276277, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.512673, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.806555, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 230210, "relative_activity": 1.320125, "balance": 0.806555, "dry_up": 0.935033, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128911, "annualized_volatility": 0.480956, "from_high_reference": -0.212438, "from_low_reference": 1.533391 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.601447, "fair_value_reference": 39.703485, "structural_low": 49.597705, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.395434, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.216671, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.395434, "worst_return": 0.395434, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.856992, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.601135, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.856992, "worst_return": 0.856992, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094211, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080994, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.102525, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.504961, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", 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"activity_lines": [ 83.635567, 88.310958, 85.858543, 79.586251 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 85.037, "volume": 230210, "typical_volume": 174385.05, "trend": 72.601447, "fair_value": 39.703485, "relative_strength": 27.097488, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.691878, "energy": 23.024087, "activity_lines": [ 83.34474, 87.315978, 86.377097, 80.458834 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }