{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ef3bc0a-91b9-4cd5-9e3a-f16b84e5aaaf", "symbol": "QQLV", "name": "Invesco QQQ Low Volatility ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.926, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.809, "architecture_energy": 74.281, "architecture_maturity": 21.749, "architecture_confidence": 66.913, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.06, "rotation_up": 76.36, "upward_expansion": 91.42, "deceleration": 42.37, "rotation_down": 10.0, "downward_expansion": 15.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.463396, 25.198715, 24.89694, 24.741688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.7471, "trend_reference": 24.594539, "distance_from_trend": 0.046862, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.294418, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.059795, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.052526, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.054885, "excess_performance": -0.132569, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046862, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013972, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.059795, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05046, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080525, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090361, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.054885, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.595716, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1518, "relative_activity": 0.240731, "balance": 6.595716, "dry_up": 0.889221, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022623, "annualized_volatility": 0.117122, "from_high_reference": -0.020278, "from_low_reference": 0.099555 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.594539, "fair_value_reference": 24.294418, "structural_low": 23.517735, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.01779, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016054, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.039548, "worst_return": -0.003969, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035423, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-06", "close": 24.220027, "volume": 3101, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-13", "close": 23.818917, "volume": 15716, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.996906, "energy": 67.878813, "activity_lines": [ 25.105846, 24.901177, 24.684216, 24.596271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.5299, "volume": 17901, "typical_volume": 7701.8, "trend": 24.54214, "fair_value": 24.27772, "relative_strength": -4.573763, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.686979, "energy": 67.190677, "activity_lines": [ 25.27974, 25.037829, 24.783059, 24.663948 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.7471, "volume": 1518, "typical_volume": 6305.8, "trend": 24.594539, "fair_value": 24.294418, "relative_strength": -8.052526, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.808624, "energy": 74.281153, "activity_lines": [ 25.463396, 25.198715, 24.89694, 24.741688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }