{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f00d10f-e9f6-4b6a-896e-cba2f758974b", "symbol": "JPEM", "name": "JP MORGAN ETF TRUST DIVERSIFIED RETURN EMERGING MKTS EQUITY", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 59.571, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 39.215, "architecture_energy": 43.105, "architecture_maturity": 26.596, "architecture_confidence": 54.503, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.17, "rotation_up": 57.82, "upward_expansion": 52.41, "deceleration": 29.24, "rotation_down": 24.11, "downward_expansion": 20.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.588153, 64.013088, 63.897784, 63.7972 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 65.89, "trend_reference": 63.819359, "distance_from_trend": 0.032445, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 53.411212, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.233636, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.532655, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.014766, "excess_performance": -0.110859, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032445, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020541, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.233636, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032249, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045327, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032785, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014766, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.996912, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67280, "relative_activity": 0.750229, "balance": 1.996912, "dry_up": 0.704843, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023467, "annualized_volatility": 0.17045, "from_high_reference": -0.018206, "from_low_reference": 0.190385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.819359, "fair_value_reference": 53.411212, "structural_low": 59.78333, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.000751, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.000435, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.07761, "worst_return": -0.077993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.000809, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.012301, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.072949, "worst_return": -0.104807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.009904, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.044474, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.115724, "worst_return": -0.14848, "sufficient": 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53.044486, "relative_strength": -5.069279, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.643388, "energy": 18.528235, "activity_lines": [ 63.184109, 63.2921, 63.512294, 63.574033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 63.5, "volume": 57477, "typical_volume": 109484.25, "trend": 63.554298, "fair_value": 53.15299, "relative_strength": -3.828799, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.521785, "energy": 13.103436, "activity_lines": [ 63.2597, 63.320948, 63.533014, 63.576445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 64.77, "volume": 61451, "typical_volume": 108549.25, "trend": 63.68401, "fair_value": 53.276938, "relative_strength": -2.927029, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.101748, "energy": 11.540108, "activity_lines": [ 63.806927, 63.577821, 63.6696, 63.654878 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.89, "volume": 67280, "typical_volume": 89679.25, "trend": 63.819359, "fair_value": 53.411212, "relative_strength": -4.532655, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.215461, "energy": 43.104891, "activity_lines": [ 64.588153, 64.013088, 63.897784, 63.7972 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }