{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f0bc94d-0011-480b-afee-e360044415a2", "symbol": "600444", "name": "Sinomach General Machinery Science & Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.675, "architecture_energy": 62.805, "architecture_maturity": 85.247, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 27.03, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.55, "rotation_down": 55.3, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.818115, 12.970693, 14.115556, 15.112957 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.44, "trend_reference": 16.412329, "distance_from_trend": -0.181103, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.117279, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.110951, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.742704, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.259912, "excess_performance": -0.216708, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.181103, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10553, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.110951, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.275302, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.217427, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111053, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.259912, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.288742, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12813256, "relative_activity": 1.176444, "balance": 0.288742, "dry_up": 1.102686, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077515, "annualized_volatility": 0.307728, "from_high_reference": -0.37749, "from_low_reference": 0.156632 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.412329, "fair_value_reference": 15.117279, "structural_low": 11.619945, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.024444, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.036249, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.226201, "worst_return": -0.142943, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.013008, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.021429, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.402766, "worst_return": -0.300141, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.150209, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.03449, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.332451, "worst_return": -0.069416, "sufficient": 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"active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068364, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028455, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.088933, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022768, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.068507, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": 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16.764995, "fair_value": 15.118864, "relative_strength": -29.269603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.522123, "energy": 72.224694, "activity_lines": [ 12.500572, 13.131779, 14.558411, 15.563946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.91, "volume": 10814350, "typical_volume": 11038704.1, "trend": 16.575329, "fair_value": 15.115621, "relative_strength": -23.201666, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.414752, "energy": 66.295829, "activity_lines": [ 12.569915, 12.969964, 14.297555, 15.315237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.44, "volume": 12813256, "typical_volume": 10891516.9, "trend": 16.412329, "fair_value": 15.117279, "relative_strength": -21.742704, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.675456, "energy": 62.80508, "activity_lines": [ 12.818115, 12.970693, 14.115556, 15.112957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }